Trump’s explicit public statements rejecting recognition, combined with the White House’s repeated confirmation that U.S. policy toward Somaliland remains unchanged, anchor trader expectations at a 96% probability of no formal recognition before 2027. Somaliland President Irro’s September 2026 Washington visit produced meetings with lawmakers and officials but yielded no commitments, while the administration continues to treat the territory as part of Somalia for diplomatic purposes. Israel’s December 2025 recognition created brief momentum, yet subsequent U.S. reaffirmations of Somali sovereignty and concerns over regional alliances have prevented follow-through. With only weeks remaining until the December 31, 2026 deadline, the absence of legislative action, executive announcements, or visible diplomatic groundwork leaves little room for reversal absent an unforeseen strategic shift.