Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking exactly three countries in March at 63.5%, reflecting ongoing airstrikes in Gaza against Hamas, southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, and Syria hitting Iranian-linked sites, as verified by recent IDF operations including strikes near Damascus on March 28 and frequent cross-border actions in Lebanon amid daily rocket exchanges. The 30.5% odds on four or more signal caution over potential escalation to Yemen—following Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel—or limited strikes on Iraq, but traders see barriers in de-escalation signals from U.S. diplomacy and no confirmed direct hits there yet. With March nearing its end, resolution hinges on verifiable strikes per market criteria, amid broader regional tensions with Iran proxies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in March?
How many different countries will Israel strike in March?
$279,185 Vol.
$279,185 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
68%
≥4
32%
$279,185 Vol.
$279,185 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$75,258 Vol.
68%
≥4
$174,742 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking exactly three countries in March at 63.5%, reflecting ongoing airstrikes in Gaza against Hamas, southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, and Syria hitting Iranian-linked sites, as verified by recent IDF operations including strikes near Damascus on March 28 and frequent cross-border actions in Lebanon amid daily rocket exchanges. The 30.5% odds on four or more signal caution over potential escalation to Yemen—following Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel—or limited strikes on Iraq, but traders see barriers in de-escalation signals from U.S. diplomacy and no confirmed direct hits there yet. With March nearing its end, resolution hinges on verifiable strikes per market criteria, amid broader regional tensions with Iran proxies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$279,185End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking exactly three countries in March at 63.5%, reflecting ongoing airstrikes in Gaza against Hamas, southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, and Syria hitting Iranian-linked sites, as verified by recent IDF operations including strikes near Damascus on March 28 and frequent cross-border actions in Lebanon amid daily rocket exchanges. The 30.5% odds on four or more signal caution over potential escalation to Yemen—following Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel—or limited strikes on Iraq, but traders see barriers in de-escalation signals from U.S. diplomacy and no confirmed direct hits there yet. With March nearing its end, resolution hinges on verifiable strikes per market criteria, amid broader regional tensions with Iran proxies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$279,185End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking exactly three countries in March at 63.5%, reflecting ongoing airstrikes in Gaza against Hamas, southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, and Syria hitting Iranian-linked sites, as verified by recent IDF operations including strikes near Damascus on March 28 and frequent cross-border actions in Lebanon amid daily rocket exchanges. The 30.5% odds on four or more signal caution over potential escalation to Yemen—following Houthi missile launches intercepted by Israel—or limited strikes on Iraq, but traders see barriers in de-escalation signals from U.S. diplomacy and no confirmed direct hits there yet. With March nearing its end, resolution hinges on verifiable strikes per market criteria, amid broader regional tensions with Iran proxies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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