Trader consensus favors ≥4 countries at 64% implied probability for Israeli strikes in March, driven by confirmed military actions in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid the US-Israel offensive launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear sites, ballistic missile program, and leadership. Intensified airstrikes hit Tehran on March 23 and nuclear facilities March 27, while daily operations targeted Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Beirut suburbs on March 27. Routine strikes on Syrian Iranian proxies and responses to Houthi attacks in Yemen complete the tally, with three days remaining potentially adding Iraq amid proxy escalations, though exactly three holds 36.5% on narrower strike definitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in March?
How many different countries will Israel strike in March?
$289,149 Vol.
$289,149 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
32%
≥4
65%
$289,149 Vol.
$289,149 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$77,748 Vol.
32%
≥4
$182,448 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors ≥4 countries at 64% implied probability for Israeli strikes in March, driven by confirmed military actions in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid the US-Israel offensive launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear sites, ballistic missile program, and leadership. Intensified airstrikes hit Tehran on March 23 and nuclear facilities March 27, while daily operations targeted Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Beirut suburbs on March 27. Routine strikes on Syrian Iranian proxies and responses to Houthi attacks in Yemen complete the tally, with three days remaining potentially adding Iraq amid proxy escalations, though exactly three holds 36.5% on narrower strike definitions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$289,149End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors ≥4 countries at 64% implied probability for Israeli strikes in March, driven by confirmed military actions in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid the US-Israel offensive launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear sites, ballistic missile program, and leadership. Intensified airstrikes hit Tehran on March 23 and nuclear facilities March 27, while daily operations targeted Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Beirut suburbs on March 27. Routine strikes on Syrian Iranian proxies and responses to Houthi attacks in Yemen complete the tally, with three days remaining potentially adding Iraq amid proxy escalations, though exactly three holds 36.5% on narrower strike definitions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$289,149End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors ≥4 countries at 64% implied probability for Israeli strikes in March, driven by confirmed military actions in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen amid the US-Israel offensive launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear sites, ballistic missile program, and leadership. Intensified airstrikes hit Tehran on March 23 and nuclear facilities March 27, while daily operations targeted Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Beirut suburbs on March 27. Routine strikes on Syrian Iranian proxies and responses to Houthi attacks in Yemen complete the tally, with three days remaining potentially adding Iraq amid proxy escalations, though exactly three holds 36.5% on narrower strike definitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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