Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon during the 2026 Israel-Hezbollah conflict have focused on areas south of the Litani River near Nabatieh, where forces advanced in late May toward Hezbollah positions, issuing evacuation orders and conducting strikes around Choukine. Trader odds center on whether confirmed ground troops physically enter the municipality by the resolution date, as aerial operations alone do not trigger yes outcomes. A US-brokered truce took effect in mid-June, followed by a framework agreement for phased Israeli withdrawals from select zones and Lebanese army deployment starting in July. These diplomatic steps, alongside any renewed clashes or delays in disengagement, shape assessments of entry timelines, with resolution relying on photo, video, or credible reporting consensus.