Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have focused on targeting Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani River, with ground advances reaching areas near Nabatieh and repeated airstrikes, raids, and evacuation orders around Choukine through mid-2026. A U.S.-brokered framework agreement in June established conditions for phased Israeli withdrawals from pilot zones in exchange for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah disarmament steps, though violations including strikes and tunnel demolitions have persisted. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to ground forces physically entering the Choukine municipality by late September deadlines, citing the agreement's constraints and lack of confirmed boots-on-the-ground incursions despite surrounding activity. Key variables include any breakdown in the truce, Hezbollah responses, or accelerated buffer zone enforcement that could alter timelines before resolution.