Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on retaining enrichment rights. Recent IAEA reports from March highlight Iran's continued high-level uranium enrichment at underground sites like Isfahan and restricted agency access, undermining verification efforts. US proposals, including a March 25 15-point plan demanding program dismantlement and stockpile handover, have met rejection, echoing February talks where Oman mediated a zero-stockpile concession but not cessation of enrichment itself. President Trump's March 28 remarks on Iran's military setbacks underscore escalating pressure via sanctions and potential airstrikes, reducing prospects for a pre-deadline deal amid noncompliance and diplomatic gridlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$137,795 Vol.
$137,795 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$137,795 Vol.
$137,795 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on retaining enrichment rights. Recent IAEA reports from March highlight Iran's continued high-level uranium enrichment at underground sites like Isfahan and restricted agency access, undermining verification efforts. US proposals, including a March 25 15-point plan demanding program dismantlement and stockpile handover, have met rejection, echoing February talks where Oman mediated a zero-stockpile concession but not cessation of enrichment itself. President Trump's March 28 remarks on Iran's military setbacks underscore escalating pressure via sanctions and potential airstrikes, reducing prospects for a pre-deadline deal amid noncompliance and diplomatic gridlock.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$137,795End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on retaining enrichment rights. Recent IAEA reports from March highlight Iran's continued high-level uranium enrichment at underground sites like Isfahan and restricted agency access, undermining verification efforts. US proposals, including a March 25 15-point plan demanding program dismantlement and stockpile handover, have met rejection, echoing February talks where Oman mediated a zero-stockpile concession but not cessation of enrichment itself. President Trump's March 28 remarks on Iran's military setbacks underscore escalating pressure via sanctions and potential airstrikes, reducing prospects for a pre-deadline deal amid noncompliance and diplomatic gridlock.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$137,795End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Tehran's firm insistence on retaining enrichment rights. Recent IAEA reports from March highlight Iran's continued high-level uranium enrichment at underground sites like Isfahan and restricted agency access, undermining verification efforts. US proposals, including a March 25 15-point plan demanding program dismantlement and stockpile handover, have met rejection, echoing February talks where Oman mediated a zero-stockpile concession but not cessation of enrichment itself. President Trump's March 28 remarks on Iran's military setbacks underscore escalating pressure via sanctions and potential airstrikes, reducing prospects for a pre-deadline deal amid noncompliance and diplomatic gridlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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