Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by Tehran's repeated insistence on its right to enrichment during February indirect talks in Oman and Geneva, where it rejected U.S. demands to halt activities and relocate stockpiles. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight ongoing access denials to key sites like Isfahan, preventing verification of any suspension amid a stockpile of nearly 441 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground. Escalation intensified with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities reported March 27, further dimming prospects for diplomatic breakthrough despite U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment, as mutual distrust and verification hurdles persist ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$137,220 Vol.
$137,220 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$137,220 Vol.
$137,220 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by Tehran's repeated insistence on its right to enrichment during February indirect talks in Oman and Geneva, where it rejected U.S. demands to halt activities and relocate stockpiles. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight ongoing access denials to key sites like Isfahan, preventing verification of any suspension amid a stockpile of nearly 441 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground. Escalation intensified with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities reported March 27, further dimming prospects for diplomatic breakthrough despite U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment, as mutual distrust and verification hurdles persist ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$137,220End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by Tehran's repeated insistence on its right to enrichment during February indirect talks in Oman and Geneva, where it rejected U.S. demands to halt activities and relocate stockpiles. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight ongoing access denials to key sites like Isfahan, preventing verification of any suspension amid a stockpile of nearly 441 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground. Escalation intensified with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities reported March 27, further dimming prospects for diplomatic breakthrough despite U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment, as mutual distrust and verification hurdles persist ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$137,220End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 72% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by Tehran's repeated insistence on its right to enrichment during February indirect talks in Oman and Geneva, where it rejected U.S. demands to halt activities and relocate stockpiles. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight ongoing access denials to key sites like Isfahan, preventing verification of any suspension amid a stockpile of nearly 441 kg of 60% enriched uranium stored underground. Escalation intensified with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities reported March 27, further dimming prospects for diplomatic breakthrough despite U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment, as mutual distrust and verification hurdles persist ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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