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Geopolitics·Strikes

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Strikes

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?

NEW
Apr 15, 2026
Polymarket

$7,720 Vol.

Polymarket

April 15

$6,014 Vol.

17%

April 30

$1,706 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,720
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets, including missile production facilities and air defenses, marked a calibrated response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage but deliberately spared nuclear sites like the fortified Fordow uranium enrichment facility near Qom, amid U.S. pressure to avoid escalation into full-scale war. Fordow remains a focal point of concern, with IAEA reports confirming Iran's continued high-level uranium enrichment there—nearing weapons-grade levels—prompting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to reiterate threats of preemptive action against the nuclear program. Ongoing IDF operations in Gaza and Lebanon against Hamas and Hezbollah strain resources, while diplomatic channels, including UN Security Council sessions, seek de-escalation; traders watch for Iranian retaliation signals or U.S. election outcomes that could shift Israel's calculus before any resolution deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 26%, followed by "April 15" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is "April 30" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 15" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.