**Trader consensus heavily favors no full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, reflecting sustained operations by essential personnel after a February ordered departure of non-emergency staff and families amid Israel-Hezbollah border clashes.** Recent U.S.-hosted direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including discussions on Hezbollah disarmament and ceasefire implementation following the U.S.-Iran agreement, signal diplomatic de-escalation, with Lebanese officials engaging despite public and Hezbollah opposition. Ongoing security alerts urge U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no new embassy-wide pullout orders have issued despite incidents like April 8 shots fired at the compound. High confidence stems from absent imminent threats warranting closure, though major escalation—such as intensified airstrikes on Beirut, Hezbollah retaliation, or intelligence on direct embassy targeting—could prompt reversal before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
$13,986 Vol.
$13,986 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$13,986 Vol.
$13,986 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Trader consensus heavily favors no full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, reflecting sustained operations by essential personnel after a February ordered departure of non-emergency staff and families amid Israel-Hezbollah border clashes.** Recent U.S.-hosted direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including discussions on Hezbollah disarmament and ceasefire implementation following the U.S.-Iran agreement, signal diplomatic de-escalation, with Lebanese officials engaging despite public and Hezbollah opposition. Ongoing security alerts urge U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no new embassy-wide pullout orders have issued despite incidents like April 8 shots fired at the compound. High confidence stems from absent imminent threats warranting closure, though major escalation—such as intensified airstrikes on Beirut, Hezbollah retaliation, or intelligence on direct embassy targeting—could prompt reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$13,986End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Trader consensus heavily favors no full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, reflecting sustained operations by essential personnel after a February ordered departure of non-emergency staff and families amid Israel-Hezbollah border clashes.** Recent U.S.-hosted direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including discussions on Hezbollah disarmament and ceasefire implementation following the U.S.-Iran agreement, signal diplomatic de-escalation, with Lebanese officials engaging despite public and Hezbollah opposition. Ongoing security alerts urge U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no new embassy-wide pullout orders have issued despite incidents like April 8 shots fired at the compound. High confidence stems from absent imminent threats warranting closure, though major escalation—such as intensified airstrikes on Beirut, Hezbollah retaliation, or intelligence on direct embassy targeting—could prompt reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$13,986End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no full U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, reflecting sustained operations by essential personnel after a February ordered departure of non-emergency staff and families amid Israel-Hezbollah border clashes.** Recent U.S.-hosted direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, including discussions on Hezbollah disarmament and ceasefire implementation following the U.S.-Iran agreement, signal diplomatic de-escalation, with Lebanese officials engaging despite public and Hezbollah opposition. Ongoing security alerts urge U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no new embassy-wide pullout orders have issued despite incidents like April 8 shots fired at the compound. High confidence stems from absent imminent threats warranting closure, though major escalation—such as intensified airstrikes on Beirut, Hezbollah retaliation, or intelligence on direct embassy targeting—could prompt reversal before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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