Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.1% that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of active diplomatic crises escalating to declarations of persona non grata in the final 24 hours. Mid-March tensions peaked when South Africa summoned new U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his criticism of a domestic court ruling on the "Kill the Boer" chant, prompting calls for expulsion from some politicians and media, but these de-escalated after his apology and no official action followed. Expulsions remain rare without prolonged buildup, and no comparable bilateral frictions—involving key actors like Russia, China, or Iran—have surfaced recently. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen late-breaking foreign policy ruptures, such as sudden retaliatory measures amid ongoing regional conflicts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$99,415 Vol.
$99,415 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$99,415 Vol.
$99,415 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.1% that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of active diplomatic crises escalating to declarations of persona non grata in the final 24 hours. Mid-March tensions peaked when South Africa summoned new U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his criticism of a domestic court ruling on the "Kill the Boer" chant, prompting calls for expulsion from some politicians and media, but these de-escalated after his apology and no official action followed. Expulsions remain rare without prolonged buildup, and no comparable bilateral frictions—involving key actors like Russia, China, or Iran—have surfaced recently. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen late-breaking foreign policy ruptures, such as sudden retaliatory measures amid ongoing regional conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 11:21 PM ET
Volume
$99,415End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.1% that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of active diplomatic crises escalating to declarations of persona non grata in the final 24 hours. Mid-March tensions peaked when South Africa summoned new U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his criticism of a domestic court ruling on the "Kill the Boer" chant, prompting calls for expulsion from some politicians and media, but these de-escalated after his apology and no official action followed. Expulsions remain rare without prolonged buildup, and no comparable bilateral frictions—involving key actors like Russia, China, or Iran—have surfaced recently. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen late-breaking foreign policy ruptures, such as sudden retaliatory measures amid ongoing regional conflicts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$99,415End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 11:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.1% that no country will expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of active diplomatic crises escalating to declarations of persona non grata in the final 24 hours. Mid-March tensions peaked when South Africa summoned new U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over his criticism of a domestic court ruling on the "Kill the Boer" chant, prompting calls for expulsion from some politicians and media, but these de-escalated after his apology and no official action followed. Expulsions remain rare without prolonged buildup, and no comparable bilateral frictions—involving key actors like Russia, China, or Iran—have surfaced recently. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen late-breaking foreign policy ruptures, such as sudden retaliatory measures amid ongoing regional conflicts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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