Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by the IRGC amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict since early March 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 96% implied probability for 0-10 daily ship transits by month's end, reflecting verified maritime data showing averages of 4-7 vessels per day—such as seven commercial ships on March 25-26 and six eastbound on March 28. Pre-war norms exceeded 130 transits daily, but threats, selective permissions for ships from China, Russia, India, and others, and high war-risk insurance have deterred most traffic. Recent developments like Pakistan's deal for 20 transits and Trump-reported allowances of 20 oil tankers on March 30 offer glimmers, yet sustained low volumes affirm the frontrunner. Reversal could stem from Pakistan-hosted peace talks yielding a ceasefire, US naval clearance operations, or Iran broadening access before March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
0-10 95.8%
10-20 2.9%
20-30 1.0%
30-40 <1%
$1,547,910 Vol.
$1,547,910 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0-10
96%
10-20
3%
20-30
1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 95.8%
10-20 2.9%
20-30 1.0%
30-40 <1%
$1,547,910 Vol.
$1,547,910 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0-10
$462,859 Vol.
96%
10-20
$284,455 Vol.
3%
20-30
$112,740 Vol.
1%
30-40
$292,343 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$218,878 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$88,159 Vol.
<1%
60+
$88,476 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by the IRGC amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict since early March 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 96% implied probability for 0-10 daily ship transits by month's end, reflecting verified maritime data showing averages of 4-7 vessels per day—such as seven commercial ships on March 25-26 and six eastbound on March 28. Pre-war norms exceeded 130 transits daily, but threats, selective permissions for ships from China, Russia, India, and others, and high war-risk insurance have deterred most traffic. Recent developments like Pakistan's deal for 20 transits and Trump-reported allowances of 20 oil tankers on March 30 offer glimmers, yet sustained low volumes affirm the frontrunner. Reversal could stem from Pakistan-hosted peace talks yielding a ceasefire, US naval clearance operations, or Iran broadening access before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,547,910End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by the IRGC amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict since early March 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 96% implied probability for 0-10 daily ship transits by month's end, reflecting verified maritime data showing averages of 4-7 vessels per day—such as seven commercial ships on March 25-26 and six eastbound on March 28. Pre-war norms exceeded 130 transits daily, but threats, selective permissions for ships from China, Russia, India, and others, and high war-risk insurance have deterred most traffic. Recent developments like Pakistan's deal for 20 transits and Trump-reported allowances of 20 oil tankers on March 30 offer glimmers, yet sustained low volumes affirm the frontrunner. Reversal could stem from Pakistan-hosted peace talks yielding a ceasefire, US naval clearance operations, or Iran broadening access before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,547,910End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by the IRGC amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict since early March 2026, has driven trader consensus to a 96% implied probability for 0-10 daily ship transits by month's end, reflecting verified maritime data showing averages of 4-7 vessels per day—such as seven commercial ships on March 25-26 and six eastbound on March 28. Pre-war norms exceeded 130 transits daily, but threats, selective permissions for ships from China, Russia, India, and others, and high war-risk insurance have deterred most traffic. Recent developments like Pakistan's deal for 20 transits and Trump-reported allowances of 20 oil tankers on March 30 offer glimmers, yet sustained low volumes affirm the frontrunner. Reversal could stem from Pakistan-hosted peace talks yielding a ceasefire, US naval clearance operations, or Iran broadening access before March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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