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Geopolitics·Traffic

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Traffic

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 30

0-10 96.7%

10-20 2.9%

20-30 <1%

40-50 <1%

Polymarket

$1,558,714 Vol.

0-10 96.7%

10-20 2.9%

20-30 <1%

40-50 <1%

Polymarket

$1,558,714 Vol.

0-10

$466,007 Vol.

97%

10-20

$286,112 Vol.

3%

20-30

$114,479 Vol.

<1%

30-40

$293,481 Vol.

<1%

40-50

$220,866 Vol.

<1%

50-60

$88,159 Vol.

<1%

60+

$89,611 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0-10" at 97%, followed by "10-20" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?" is "0-10" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10-20" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.