Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
0-10 96.7%
10-20 2.9%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,558,714 Vol.
$1,558,714 Vol.
0-10
97%
10-20
3%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 96.7%
10-20 2.9%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,558,714 Vol.
$1,558,714 Vol.
0-10
97%
10-20
3%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March at 96.5%, reflecting Iran's de facto blockade since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, which has slashed pre-conflict volumes of 138 vessels per day to a trickle of 4-7 based on AIS data and maritime trackers like Windward. Recent developments, including IRGC missile threats, ship attacks, and a selective vetting system allowing only non-hostile vessels—such as Pakistan's 20-ship deal and two Chinese containers on March 30—have sustained critically low traffic, with just 11 vessels reported in the past day as of March 29. This commanding position could shift via a diplomatic ceasefire, US-led naval escorts reopening commercial lanes, or broader de-escalation enabling unrestricted tanker and cargo flows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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