Official final results from Hungary's National Election Office, certified as of April 18 following the April 12 parliamentary election, confirm Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured 53.2% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38.6%, yielding a 14.6% margin that exceeds 9%. Record 79% turnout and Tisza's sweep of 96 constituency seats propelled its supermajority of 141 parliament seats, prompting Viktor Orbán's immediate concession on election night. Trader consensus at near-certainty on this outcome reflects the unambiguous victory validated by international observers as free and fair. Realistic challenges would require successful court appeals over diaspora ballots or fraud claims from Mi Hazánk, though the wide margin and procedural finality present significant barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTisza 9%+ 100.0%
Tisza 6-9% <1%
Tisza 3-6% <1%
Tisza 0-3% <1%
$3,614,165 Vol.
$3,614,165 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
Yes
Tisza 6-9%
No
Tisza 3-6%
No
Tisza 0-3%
No
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
No
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
No
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
No
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
No
Other
No
Tisza 9%+ 100.0%
Tisza 6-9% <1%
Tisza 3-6% <1%
Tisza 0-3% <1%
$3,614,165 Vol.
$3,614,165 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$1,028,655 Vol.
Yes
Tisza 6-9%
$187,074 Vol.
No
Tisza 3-6%
$167,862 Vol.
No
Tisza 0-3%
$167,632 Vol.
No
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$239,042 Vol.
No
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$251,018 Vol.
No
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$665,020 Vol.
No
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$793,502 Vol.
No
Other
$114,360 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Official final results from Hungary's National Election Office, certified as of April 18 following the April 12 parliamentary election, confirm Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured 53.2% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38.6%, yielding a 14.6% margin that exceeds 9%. Record 79% turnout and Tisza's sweep of 96 constituency seats propelled its supermajority of 141 parliament seats, prompting Viktor Orbán's immediate concession on election night. Trader consensus at near-certainty on this outcome reflects the unambiguous victory validated by international observers as free and fair. Realistic challenges would require successful court appeals over diaspora ballots or fraud claims from Mi Hazánk, though the wide margin and procedural finality present significant barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$3,614,165End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Official final results from Hungary's National Election Office, certified as of April 18 following the April 12 parliamentary election, confirm Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured 53.2% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38.6%, yielding a 14.6% margin that exceeds 9%. Record 79% turnout and Tisza's sweep of 96 constituency seats propelled its supermajority of 141 parliament seats, prompting Viktor Orbán's immediate concession on election night. Trader consensus at near-certainty on this outcome reflects the unambiguous victory validated by international observers as free and fair. Realistic challenges would require successful court appeals over diaspora ballots or fraud claims from Mi Hazánk, though the wide margin and procedural finality present significant barriers.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$3,614,165End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official final results from Hungary's National Election Office, certified as of April 18 following the April 12 parliamentary election, confirm Péter Magyar's Tisza party secured 53.2% of the party list vote against Fidesz-KDNP's 38.6%, yielding a 14.6% margin that exceeds 9%. Record 79% turnout and Tisza's sweep of 96 constituency seats propelled its supermajority of 141 parliament seats, prompting Viktor Orbán's immediate concession on election night. Trader consensus at near-certainty on this outcome reflects the unambiguous victory validated by international observers as free and fair. Realistic challenges would require successful court appeals over diaspora ballots or fraud claims from Mi Hazánk, though the wide margin and procedural finality present significant barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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