Recent polls showing Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP have propelled trader consensus toward a substantial Tisza popular vote margin in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. A late-March Medián survey indicated a 23-point Tisza advantage, while 21 Research Centre placed Tisza at 53% versus Fidesz's 39% among decided voters, and IDEA showed Tisza at 49% to Fidesz's 37%. This momentum, fueled by Tisza's March 15 national march drawing massive crowds, explains the 38% implied probability on Tisza winning by 9%+ and 19% on 6-9%, reflecting polling trends amid the campaign's final stretch despite Hungary's mixed electoral system favoring district winners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTisza 9%+ 38%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,193,663 Vol.
$1,193,663 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
38%
Tisza 6-9%
19%
Tisza 3-6%
18%
Tisza 0-3%
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
7%
Other
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 38%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,193,663 Vol.
$1,193,663 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$71,206 Vol.
38%
Tisza 6-9%
$16,559 Vol.
19%
Tisza 3-6%
$39,661 Vol.
18%
Tisza 0-3%
$23,741 Vol.
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$50,824 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$47,603 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$438,081 Vol.
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$490,028 Vol.
7%
Other
$15,959 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls showing Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP have propelled trader consensus toward a substantial Tisza popular vote margin in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. A late-March Medián survey indicated a 23-point Tisza advantage, while 21 Research Centre placed Tisza at 53% versus Fidesz's 39% among decided voters, and IDEA showed Tisza at 49% to Fidesz's 37%. This momentum, fueled by Tisza's March 15 national march drawing massive crowds, explains the 38% implied probability on Tisza winning by 9%+ and 19% on 6-9%, reflecting polling trends amid the campaign's final stretch despite Hungary's mixed electoral system favoring district winners.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,193,663End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls showing Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP have propelled trader consensus toward a substantial Tisza popular vote margin in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. A late-March Medián survey indicated a 23-point Tisza advantage, while 21 Research Centre placed Tisza at 53% versus Fidesz's 39% among decided voters, and IDEA showed Tisza at 49% to Fidesz's 37%. This momentum, fueled by Tisza's March 15 national march drawing massive crowds, explains the 38% implied probability on Tisza winning by 9%+ and 19% on 6-9%, reflecting polling trends amid the campaign's final stretch despite Hungary's mixed electoral system favoring district winners.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,193,663End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls showing Péter Magyar's Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP have propelled trader consensus toward a substantial Tisza popular vote margin in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. A late-March Medián survey indicated a 23-point Tisza advantage, while 21 Research Centre placed Tisza at 53% versus Fidesz's 39% among decided voters, and IDEA showed Tisza at 49% to Fidesz's 37%. This momentum, fueled by Tisza's March 15 national march drawing massive crowds, explains the 38% implied probability on Tisza winning by 9%+ and 19% on 6-9%, reflecting polling trends amid the campaign's final stretch despite Hungary's mixed electoral system favoring district winners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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