Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory over Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with the largest share pricing a 9%+ margin at 35% implied probability, reflecting recent opinion polls like Medián's March survey showing Tisza at 55% to Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a 20-point lead that has widened in the past week. This surge follows Tisza leader Péter Magyar's massive March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters and gains even in Fidesz rural strongholds, amid voter fatigue with 16 years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbency. Hungary's mixed electoral system of single-member districts and proportional lists favors Fidesz structurally, but national polling trends underpin expectations of a double-digit Tisza edge, though final turnout and any late campaign shifts could narrow it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTisza 9%+ 38%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,187,581 Vol.
$1,187,581 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
38%
Tisza 6-9%
19%
Tisza 3-6%
18%
Tisza 0-3%
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
7%
Other
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 38%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,187,581 Vol.
$1,187,581 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$71,147 Vol.
38%
Tisza 6-9%
$16,500 Vol.
19%
Tisza 3-6%
$39,632 Vol.
18%
Tisza 0-3%
$23,669 Vol.
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$50,751 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$47,582 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$438,060 Vol.
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$489,985 Vol.
7%
Other
$15,931 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory over Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with the largest share pricing a 9%+ margin at 35% implied probability, reflecting recent opinion polls like Medián's March survey showing Tisza at 55% to Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a 20-point lead that has widened in the past week. This surge follows Tisza leader Péter Magyar's massive March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters and gains even in Fidesz rural strongholds, amid voter fatigue with 16 years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbency. Hungary's mixed electoral system of single-member districts and proportional lists favors Fidesz structurally, but national polling trends underpin expectations of a double-digit Tisza edge, though final turnout and any late campaign shifts could narrow it.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,187,581End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory over Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with the largest share pricing a 9%+ margin at 35% implied probability, reflecting recent opinion polls like Medián's March survey showing Tisza at 55% to Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a 20-point lead that has widened in the past week. This surge follows Tisza leader Péter Magyar's massive March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters and gains even in Fidesz rural strongholds, amid voter fatigue with 16 years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbency. Hungary's mixed electoral system of single-member districts and proportional lists favors Fidesz structurally, but national polling trends underpin expectations of a double-digit Tisza edge, though final turnout and any late campaign shifts could narrow it.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,187,581End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory over Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with the largest share pricing a 9%+ margin at 35% implied probability, reflecting recent opinion polls like Medián's March survey showing Tisza at 55% to Fidesz's 35% among decided voters—a 20-point lead that has widened in the past week. This surge follows Tisza leader Péter Magyar's massive March 15 national march drawing half a million supporters and gains even in Fidesz rural strongholds, amid voter fatigue with 16 years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's incumbency. Hungary's mixed electoral system of single-member districts and proportional lists favors Fidesz structurally, but national polling trends underpin expectations of a double-digit Tisza edge, though final turnout and any late campaign shifts could narrow it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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