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Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Market icon

Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Tisza 9%+ 37%

Tisza 6-9% 14%

Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 13%

Tisza 3-6% 10%

Polymarket

$16,007 Vol.

Tisza 9%+ 37%

Tisza 6-9% 14%

Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 13%

Tisza 3-6% 10%

Polymarket

$16,007 Vol.

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Tisza 9%+

$1,894 Vol.

37%

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Tisza 6-9%

$860 Vol.

14%

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Tisza 3-6%

$896 Vol.

10%

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Tisza 0-3%

$885 Vol.

5%

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Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%

$1,101 Vol.

13%

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Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%

$1,417 Vol.

3%

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Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%

$1,623 Vol.

6%

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Fidesz-KDNP 9%+

$6,373 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Other

$957 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$16,007
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tisza 9%+" at 37%, followed by "Tisza 6-9%" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory" has generated $16K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory" is "Tisza 9%+" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tisza 6-9%" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.