Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Závecz Research show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 13–23 points among decided and likely voters, boosting trader consensus for Tisza securing 120–130 seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament. This reflects optimism over Tisza's popular vote edge, but the race remains tight due to the mixed electoral system—106 winner-take-all single-member districts gerrymandered to favor Fidesz incumbents, plus 93 proportional party list seats—limiting translation of vote shares to seats, as seen in projections like PolitPro's Tisza at 102 versus Fidesz at 86. Conflicting pro-government polls projecting Fidesz district dominance sustain uncertainty; final-week turnout in battleground constituencies, campaign momentum, or undecided voter shifts could tip outcomes toward a Tisza majority above 100 seats or force coalition negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated# of seats won by TISZA in Hungary parliamentary election?
# of seats won by TISZA in Hungary parliamentary election?
130+ 26%
120-129 26%
110–119 14%
100–109 14%
$1,377,511 Vol.
$1,377,511 Vol.
<70
2%
70–79
7%
80–89
6%
90–99
10%
100–109
14%
110–119
14%
120-129
26%
130+
26%
130+ 26%
120-129 26%
110–119 14%
100–109 14%
$1,377,511 Vol.
$1,377,511 Vol.
<70
2%
70–79
7%
80–89
6%
90–99
10%
100–109
14%
110–119
14%
120-129
26%
130+
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Závecz Research show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 13–23 points among decided and likely voters, boosting trader consensus for Tisza securing 120–130 seats in Hungary's 199-seat parliament. This reflects optimism over Tisza's popular vote edge, but the race remains tight due to the mixed electoral system—106 winner-take-all single-member districts gerrymandered to favor Fidesz incumbents, plus 93 proportional party list seats—limiting translation of vote shares to seats, as seen in projections like PolitPro's Tisza at 102 versus Fidesz at 86. Conflicting pro-government polls projecting Fidesz district dominance sustain uncertainty; final-week turnout in battleground constituencies, campaign momentum, or undecided voter shifts could tip outcomes toward a Tisza majority above 100 seats or force coalition negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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