Market icon
Elections·Magyar

Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote

Market icon
Elections·Magyar

Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote

40-44% 37%

36-40% 25%

44-48% 21%

<36% 14%

Polymarket

$15,557 Vol.

40-44% 37%

36-40% 25%

44-48% 21%

<36% 14%

Polymarket

$15,557 Vol.

<36%

$2,430 Vol.

14%

36-40%

$6,585 Vol.

25%

40-44%

$542 Vol.

34%

44-48%

$4,906 Vol.

21%

48%+

$1,093 Vol.

7%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.

This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.

If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$15,557
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.

Trader consensus on Fidesz-KDNP's popular vote share in Hungary's parliamentary election favors 40-44% at 34.5%, reflecting polls showing the ruling coalition neck-and-neck with Péter Magyar's surging Tisza party amid economic headwinds like persistent inflation and recession risks. EU rule-of-law disputes continue blocking significant recovery funds, eroding Fidesz support while opposition momentum builds from Tisza's strong European Parliament and local election performances in June 2024. Incumbency perks, including state media dominance, balance Magyar's anticorruption appeal, keeping mid-range outcomes probable. Separators could include EU fund breakthroughs, fresh scandals, or polling shifts from rural turnout dynamics before 2026.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

69%
Market icon

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

25%
Market icon

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

26%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40-44%" at 34%, followed by "36-40%" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote" has generated $15.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote" is "40-44%" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "36-40%" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.