Recent polls drive trader consensus toward a Progressive Bulgaria (PB) victory margin of 5-15% in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with Sova Harris (April 6) showing PB at 34% to GERB-SDS's 19% (15-point gap) and Gallup (March 30) at 28% to 23% (5 points), averaging a modest lead amid a fragmented field including Democratic Bulgaria, DPS, and Vazrazhdane. Ex-President Rumen Radev's leadership of the new PB coalition has sustained this edge since the Zhelyazkov government's December resignation triggered the vote, fueled by anti-corruption sentiment and voter fatigue from seven prior elections since 2021. The race stays tight due to proportional representation diluting leads, low expected turnout, and historical polling inaccuracies in Bulgaria's volatile multiparty system; late debates, mobilizations, or scandals could widen the gap or enable GERB-SDS upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPB 5-10% 42%
PB 10-15% 33%
PB 15-20% 11%
GERB-SDS Victory 7.1%
$26,248 Vol.
$26,248 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
7%
PB 15-20%
11%
PB 10-15%
33%
PB 5-10%
42%
PB <5%
3%
GERB-SDS Victory
7%
Other
1%
PB 5-10% 42%
PB 10-15% 33%
PB 15-20% 11%
GERB-SDS Victory 7.1%
$26,248 Vol.
$26,248 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$308 Vol.
7%
PB 15-20%
$10,882 Vol.
11%
PB 10-15%
$10,446 Vol.
33%
PB 5-10%
$4,314 Vol.
42%
PB <5%
$175 Vol.
3%
GERB-SDS Victory
$74 Vol.
7%
Other
$50 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls drive trader consensus toward a Progressive Bulgaria (PB) victory margin of 5-15% in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with Sova Harris (April 6) showing PB at 34% to GERB-SDS's 19% (15-point gap) and Gallup (March 30) at 28% to 23% (5 points), averaging a modest lead amid a fragmented field including Democratic Bulgaria, DPS, and Vazrazhdane. Ex-President Rumen Radev's leadership of the new PB coalition has sustained this edge since the Zhelyazkov government's December resignation triggered the vote, fueled by anti-corruption sentiment and voter fatigue from seven prior elections since 2021. The race stays tight due to proportional representation diluting leads, low expected turnout, and historical polling inaccuracies in Bulgaria's volatile multiparty system; late debates, mobilizations, or scandals could widen the gap or enable GERB-SDS upset.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$26,248End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls drive trader consensus toward a Progressive Bulgaria (PB) victory margin of 5-15% in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with Sova Harris (April 6) showing PB at 34% to GERB-SDS's 19% (15-point gap) and Gallup (March 30) at 28% to 23% (5 points), averaging a modest lead amid a fragmented field including Democratic Bulgaria, DPS, and Vazrazhdane. Ex-President Rumen Radev's leadership of the new PB coalition has sustained this edge since the Zhelyazkov government's December resignation triggered the vote, fueled by anti-corruption sentiment and voter fatigue from seven prior elections since 2021. The race stays tight due to proportional representation diluting leads, low expected turnout, and historical polling inaccuracies in Bulgaria's volatile multiparty system; late debates, mobilizations, or scandals could widen the gap or enable GERB-SDS upset.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$26,248End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls drive trader consensus toward a Progressive Bulgaria (PB) victory margin of 5-15% in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with Sova Harris (April 6) showing PB at 34% to GERB-SDS's 19% (15-point gap) and Gallup (March 30) at 28% to 23% (5 points), averaging a modest lead amid a fragmented field including Democratic Bulgaria, DPS, and Vazrazhdane. Ex-President Rumen Radev's leadership of the new PB coalition has sustained this edge since the Zhelyazkov government's December resignation triggered the vote, fueled by anti-corruption sentiment and voter fatigue from seven prior elections since 2021. The race stays tight due to proportional representation diluting leads, low expected turnout, and historical polling inaccuracies in Bulgaria's volatile multiparty system; late debates, mobilizations, or scandals could widen the gap or enable GERB-SDS upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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