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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Eric Swalwell 63%

Tom Steyer 10.1%

Steve Hilton 8.6%

Matt Mahan 7%

Polymarket

$8,189,883 Vol.

Eric Swalwell 63%

Tom Steyer 10.1%

Steve Hilton 8.6%

Matt Mahan 7%

Polymarket

$8,189,883 Vol.

Eric Swalwell

$121,129 Vol.

63%

Tom Steyer

$2,637,053 Vol.

10%

Steve Hilton

$762,230 Vol.

9%

Matt Mahan

$169,826 Vol.

7%

Elaine Culotti

$57,261 Vol.

4%

Katie Porter

$599,389 Vol.

2%

Chad Bianco

$673,843 Vol.

2%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$63,625 Vol.

1%

Rick Caruso

$258,321 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$146,954 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$124,318 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$130,442 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$229,099 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$180,078 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$127,280 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$89,222 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$316,210 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$116,606 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$294,323 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$239,927 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$507,533 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$179,315 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$165,899 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Congressman Eric Swalwell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 62.5% implied probability to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, driven by his recent surge in primary polls like the March Emerson survey showing him atop the crowded Democratic field ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Key labor endorsements from SEIU, California Professional Firefighters, and CTA have consolidated support, boosting his path to advance alongside a Republican like Steve Hilton (8.6%) or Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. In deep-blue California, the primary frontrunner holds a structural edge for the November 3 general election, though a split Democratic vote risks a GOP top-two lockout amid resurfaced FBI scrutiny over Swalwell's past Chinese spy ties and ongoing campaign finance pressures.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,189,883
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Congressman Eric Swalwell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 62.5% implied probability to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, driven by his recent surge in primary polls like the March Emerson survey showing him atop the crowded Democratic field ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. Key labor endorsements from SEIU, California Professional Firefighters, and CTA have consolidated support, boosting his path to advance alongside a Republican like Steve Hilton (8.6%) or Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. In deep-blue California, the primary frontrunner holds a structural edge for the November 3 general election, though a split Democratic vote risks a GOP top-two lockout amid resurfaced FBI scrutiny over Swalwell's past Chinese spy ties and ongoing campaign finance pressures.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$8,189,883
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 63%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $8.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Eric Swalwell" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.