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Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Canada

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow 79%

Brad Bradford 11%

Ana Bailão 6%

John Tory 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Olivia Chow 79%

Brad Bradford 11%

Ana Bailão 6%

John Tory 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

Olivia Chow

$3,773 Vol.

79%

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Brad Bradford

$346 Vol.

11%

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Ana Bailão

$1,929 Vol.

6%

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John Tory

$309 Vol.

2%

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Michael Ford

$1,031 Vol.

2%

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Anthony Furey

$410 Vol.

1%

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Kevin Clarke

$264 Vol.

1%

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Marco Mendicino

$331 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow commands trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the October 26, 2026 Toronto municipal election, bolstered by recent polls showing her leading multi-candidate fields by double digits—such as 35% support with 25% undecided as of March 10—following former Mayor John Tory's decision to sit out the race earlier that month. Her 55% approval rating from February surveys underscores incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition. City Councillor Brad Bradford, at 11%, gains traction as the centre-right challenger after declaring his candidacy on March 4 and polling competitively head-to-head, while Ana Bailão lingers at 6% on her 2023 runner-up status. Michael Ford's April 2 withdrawal consolidated Chow's edge, with Scarborough emerging as a pivotal battleground for transit and budget debates ahead of nomination deadlines.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$8,391
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.Incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow commands trader consensus at 78% implied probability for the October 26, 2026 Toronto municipal election, bolstered by recent polls showing her leading multi-candidate fields by double digits—such as 35% support with 25% undecided as of March 10—following former Mayor John Tory's decision to sit out the race earlier that month. Her 55% approval rating from February surveys underscores incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition. City Councillor Brad Bradford, at 11%, gains traction as the centre-right challenger after declaring his candidacy on March 4 and polling competitively head-to-head, while Ana Bailão lingers at 6% on her 2023 runner-up status. Michael Ford's April 2 withdrawal consolidated Chow's edge, with Scarborough emerging as a pivotal battleground for transit and budget debates ahead of nomination deadlines.

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Volume
$8,391
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Olivia Chow" at 79%, followed by "Brad Bradford" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" is "Olivia Chow" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brad Bradford" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Toronto Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.