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icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner

Cory Mills 51%

Ryan Elijah 48%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Mike Johnson <1%

Polymarket

$21,400 Vol.

Cory Mills 51%

Ryan Elijah 48%

Sarah Ulrich <1%

Mike Johnson <1%

Polymarket

$21,400 Vol.

icon for Cory Mills

Cory Mills

$11,752 Vol.

51%

icon for Ryan Elijah

Ryan Elijah

$6,350 Vol.

48%

icon for Sarah Ulrich

Sarah Ulrich

$1,926 Vol.

1%

icon for Mike Johnson

Mike Johnson

$1,372 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Cory Mills holds a narrow edge in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 7th congressional district, backed by President Trump's endorsement and fundraising dominance, yet faces scrutiny over ethics issues and reports of a federal investigation that challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich highlighted during their sole debate. Recent polls show Mills at 27-30% support in a crowded field, with Elijah trailing at 14%, leaving room for vote splitting that keeps the outcome uncertain. The short timeline to primary day, combined with the district's Republican lean and Mills' incumbency advantages, sustains tight trader pricing across contenders as any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the result.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,400
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Cory Mills holds a narrow edge in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida's 7th congressional district, backed by President Trump's endorsement and fundraising dominance, yet faces scrutiny over ethics issues and reports of a federal investigation that challengers Ryan Elijah, Michael Johnson, and Sarah Ulrich highlighted during their sole debate. Recent polls show Mills at 27-30% support in a crowded field, with Elijah trailing at 14%, leaving room for vote splitting that keeps the outcome uncertain. The short timeline to primary day, combined with the district's Republican lean and Mills' incumbency advantages, sustains tight trader pricing across contenders as any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the result.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$21,400
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cory Mills" at 51%, followed by "Ryan Elijah" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $21.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" is "Cory Mills" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Elijah" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-07 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.