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Elections·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Byron Donalds 87%

James Fishback 10%

Jay Collins 1.7%

Casey DeSantis <1%

Polymarket

$1,199,730 Vol.

Byron Donalds 87%

James Fishback 10%

Jay Collins 1.7%

Casey DeSantis <1%

Polymarket

$1,199,730 Vol.

Byron Donalds

$74,831 Vol.

87%

James Fishback

$291,333 Vol.

10%

Jay Collins

$612,761 Vol.

2%

Casey DeSantis

$164,033 Vol.

1%

Wilton Simpson

$12,964 Vol.

<1%

Matt Gaetz

$19,259 Vol.

<1%

Jimmy Patronis

$24,548 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for the Republican gubernatorial primary winner on August 18, 2026, fueled by President Trump's early endorsement, consistent polling leads exceeding 40 points among GOP primary voters, and a record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul announced this week—outpacing all non-incumbent challengers. Recent surveys from early March confirm Donalds approaching majority support, solidifying his frontrunner status in the open-seat race succeeding term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Investor James Fishback trails at 9.5% with Gen Z appeal via online outreach, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and others linger below 2%, as no major shifts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond Donalds' financial edge and poll dominance. Upcoming debates or additional endorsements could influence the crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$1,199,730
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds dominates trader consensus at 86.5% implied probability for the Republican gubernatorial primary winner on August 18, 2026, fueled by President Trump's early endorsement, consistent polling leads exceeding 40 points among GOP primary voters, and a record $22 million first-quarter fundraising haul announced this week—outpacing all non-incumbent challengers. Recent surveys from early March confirm Donalds approaching majority support, solidifying his frontrunner status in the open-seat race succeeding term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Investor James Fishback trails at 9.5% with Gen Z appeal via online outreach, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and others linger below 2%, as no major shifts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond Donalds' financial edge and poll dominance. Upcoming debates or additional endorsements could influence the crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$1,199,730
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

81%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Byron Donalds" at 87%, followed by "James Fishback" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Byron Donalds" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Fishback" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.