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Politics·Primaries

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner

Erin Stewart 55%

Ryan Fazio 32%

Betsy McCaughey 13%

Harry Arora 8.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Erin Stewart 55%

Ryan Fazio 32%

Betsy McCaughey 13%

Harry Arora 8.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Erin Stewart

$2,119 Vol.

55%

Ryan Fazio

$0 Vol.

32%

Betsy McCaughey

$0 Vol.

13%

Harry Arora

$0 Vol.

7%

Timothy Wilcox

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, driven by her proven executive record governing a Democrat-dominated city for 12 years, early TV ad launches in February spending $200,000 to criticize incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont, and internal polling showing a commanding edge. State Sen. Ryan Fazio trails at 34%, supported by endorsements from the GOP House and Senate minority leaders, active campaigning on income and property tax cuts plus electricity bill reductions, and higher favorability in a February University of New Hampshire Nutmeg State Poll. Recent candidate meet-and-greets on April 2 sidestepped national figures amid focus on state issues, with the May GOP state convention poised to issue an endorsement that could consolidate support ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$2,119
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability to win Connecticut's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, driven by her proven executive record governing a Democrat-dominated city for 12 years, early TV ad launches in February spending $200,000 to criticize incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont, and internal polling showing a commanding edge. State Sen. Ryan Fazio trails at 34%, supported by endorsements from the GOP House and Senate minority leaders, active campaigning on income and property tax cuts plus electricity bill reductions, and higher favorability in a February University of New Hampshire Nutmeg State Poll. Recent candidate meet-and-greets on April 2 sidestepped national figures amid focus on state issues, with the May GOP state convention poised to issue an endorsement that could consolidate support ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$2,119
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 9:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Erin Stewart" at 55%, followed by "Ryan Fazio" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Erin Stewart" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Fazio" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.