Trader consensus positions Michael Minogue as the frontrunner at 53% implied probability to win Massachusetts' Republican gubernatorial primary on September 1, driven by his campaign's fundraising dominance—$9.9 million cash on hand as of early April, dwarfing rivals Brian Shortsleeve ($732,000) and Mike Kennealy ($1.4 million)—funding statewide TV ads and over 15 million impressions. A late February internal poll of 500 likely primary voters and convention delegates showed Minogue at 29%, Shortsleeve at 16%, and Kennealy at 7%, boosting his edge despite earlier surveys favoring Shortsleeve. Recent Kalshi markets reflect a tightening top-two race, while Kennealy claims delegate support and local straw poll victories; the April party convention's 15% delegate threshold for ballot access remains pivotal.