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Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jay Feely 69%

Joseph Chaplik 10.0%

Todd Graham 5.2%

John Trobough 3.1%

Polymarket

$324,934 Vol.

Jay Feely 69%

Joseph Chaplik 10.0%

Todd Graham 5.2%

John Trobough 3.1%

Polymarket

$324,934 Vol.

Jay Feely

$4,681 Vol.

69%

Joseph Chaplik

$8,094 Vol.

10%

Todd Graham

$7,582 Vol.

5%

John Trobough

$0 Vol.

3%

Jason Duey

$0 Vol.

3%

Brandon Sowers

$9,899 Vol.

3%

Derrick Gallego

$2,957 Vol.

2%

Gina Swoboda

$0 Vol.

1%

Mark Brnovich

$4,365 Vol.

1%

Paul Reevs

$221,067 Vol.

1%

Kari Lake

$6,398 Vol.

1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$8,035 Vol.

1%

Matt Gress

$47,835 Vol.

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,021 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 69% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, propelled by President Trump's January dual endorsement—shared initially with Gina Swoboda, who withdrew in early February to pursue secretary of state, likely consolidating pro-Trump support in the open seat vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial run. Feely's high name recognition and positive November 2025 favorability polling further solidify his edge over state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (9%), who resigned his legislative seat last month for full-time campaigning, and ex-ASU coach Todd Graham (5.3%). With the March filing deadline passed and no polls since early 2026, odds reflect steady frontrunner momentum absent new catalysts like debates or endorsements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$324,934
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 69% implied probability to win Arizona's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, propelled by President Trump's January dual endorsement—shared initially with Gina Swoboda, who withdrew in early February to pursue secretary of state, likely consolidating pro-Trump support in the open seat vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial run. Feely's high name recognition and positive November 2025 favorability polling further solidify his edge over state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (9%), who resigned his legislative seat last month for full-time campaigning, and ex-ASU coach Todd Graham (5.3%). With the March filing deadline passed and no polls since early 2026, odds reflect steady frontrunner momentum absent new catalysts like debates or endorsements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$324,934
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 69%, followed by "Joseph Chaplik" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $324.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jay Feely" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joseph Chaplik" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.