Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Rep. Angie Craig by approximately 20 percentage points in early tallies (59% to 39%). Trader pricing on the exact margin remains divided between the 15–20% and 20%+ brackets, reflecting the closely contested nature of final certification and remaining uncounted ballots. The race pitted the party-endorsed lieutenant governor against the centrist congresswoman in a contest defined by progressive-moderate divides, outside spending, and endorsements from figures including Sen. Tina Smith. Upcoming certification and any late adjustments to vote shares will determine whether the outcome settles in the current leading range or shifts higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCraig <5% 3.5%
Craig 20%+ 2.6%
Flanagan <5% 2%
Craig 5–10% <1%
$46,129 Vol.
$46,129 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
38%
Flanagan 15–20%
52%
Flanagan 10–15%
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
16%
Flanagan <5%
9%
Craig <5%
4%
Craig 5–10%
5%
Craig 10–15%
44%
Craig 15–20%
<1%
Craig 20%+
3%
Craig <5% 3.5%
Craig 20%+ 2.6%
Flanagan <5% 2%
Craig 5–10% <1%
$46,129 Vol.
$46,129 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
$1,276 Vol.
38%
Flanagan 15–20%
$16,585 Vol.
52%
Flanagan 10–15%
$9,838 Vol.
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
$4,523 Vol.
16%
Flanagan <5%
$9,077 Vol.
9%
Craig <5%
$1,287 Vol.
4%
Craig 5–10%
$2,037 Vol.
5%
Craig 10–15%
$621 Vol.
44%
Craig 15–20%
$463 Vol.
<1%
Craig 20%+
$423 Vol.
3%
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Rep. Angie Craig by approximately 20 percentage points in early tallies (59% to 39%). Trader pricing on the exact margin remains divided between the 15–20% and 20%+ brackets, reflecting the closely contested nature of final certification and remaining uncounted ballots. The race pitted the party-endorsed lieutenant governor against the centrist congresswoman in a contest defined by progressive-moderate divides, outside spending, and endorsements from figures including Sen. Tina Smith. Upcoming certification and any late adjustments to vote shares will determine whether the outcome settles in the current leading range or shifts higher.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$46,129End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Rep. Angie Craig by approximately 20 percentage points in early tallies (59% to 39%). Trader pricing on the exact margin remains divided between the 15–20% and 20%+ brackets, reflecting the closely contested nature of final certification and remaining uncounted ballots. The race pitted the party-endorsed lieutenant governor against the centrist congresswoman in a contest defined by progressive-moderate divides, outside spending, and endorsements from figures including Sen. Tina Smith. Upcoming certification and any late adjustments to vote shares will determine whether the outcome settles in the current leading range or shifts higher.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$46,129End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Rep. Angie Craig by approximately 20 percentage points in early tallies (59% to 39%). Trader pricing on the exact margin remains divided between the 15–20% and 20%+ brackets, reflecting the closely contested nature of final certification and remaining uncounted ballots. The race pitted the party-endorsed lieutenant governor against the centrist congresswoman in a contest defined by progressive-moderate divides, outside spending, and endorsements from figures including Sen. Tina Smith. Upcoming certification and any late adjustments to vote shares will determine whether the outcome settles in the current leading range or shifts higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions