Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15% 100.0%
Feely 25%+ <1%
Feely 20–25% <1%
Feely 15–20% <1%
$24,531 Vol.
$24,531 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Feely 25%+
No
Feely 20–25%
No
Feely 15–20%
No
Feely 10–15%
Yes
Feely 5–10%
No
Feely <5%
No
Chaplik <5%
No
Chaplik 5–10%
No
Chaplik 10%+
No
Feely 10–15% 100.0%
Feely 25%+ <1%
Feely 20–25% <1%
Feely 15–20% <1%
$24,531 Vol.
$24,531 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Feely 25%+
$1,868 Vol.
No
Feely 20–25%
$4,113 Vol.
No
Feely 15–20%
$8,081 Vol.
No
Feely 10–15%
$4,527 Vol.
Yes
Feely 5–10%
$2,095 Vol.
No
Feely <5%
$1,030 Vol.
No
Chaplik <5%
$999 Vol.
No
Chaplik 5–10%
$898 Vol.
No
Chaplik 10%+
$920 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$24,531End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$24,531End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Jay Feely secured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat on July 21, 2026, with roughly 50 percent of the primary vote against former state representative Joseph Chaplik and businessman John Trobough. Traders assign 100 percent probability to a 10–15 percent margin because Feely’s Trump endorsement, combined with his profile as a former Arizona Cardinals kicker, produced an early and sustained lead that held through final tallies of approximately 49.8 percent to 35.7 percent. The district’s Republican-leaning electorate and the absence of a stronger grassroots challenger further limited late movement. Certified results or minor vote adjustments remain the only realistic variables that could shift the outcome outside this range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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