Recent Marquette (March) and Patriot (mid-March) polls show State Rep. Francesca Hong leading former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in named Democratic primary preferences—Hong at 14-27%, Barnes 11-18%—yet extraordinarily high undecided rates of 43-65% underscore low voter engagement in this crowded field ahead of the August 11 primary. Traders price Barnes as the slim favorite at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting his edge in statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez trails at 23% despite her incumbency. The tight dynamics persist amid minimal consolidation; endorsements from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, superior fundraising, or early debates could tip momentum and separate frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMandela Barnes 37%
Francesca Hong 27.9%
Sara Rodriguez 23%
David Crowley 8.3%
$32,324 Vol.
$32,324 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Mandela Barnes
37%
Francesca Hong
28%
Sara Rodriguez
23%
David Crowley
8%
Kelda Roys
2%
Chris Larson
2%
Joel Brennan
1%
Tom Nelson
<1%
Brett Hulsey
<1%
Tim Jacobson
<1%
Melissa Agard
<1%
Missy Hughes
<1%
Zachary Roper
<1%
Mandela Barnes 37%
Francesca Hong 27.9%
Sara Rodriguez 23%
David Crowley 8.3%
$32,324 Vol.
$32,324 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Mandela Barnes
$7,473 Vol.
37%
Francesca Hong
$5,043 Vol.
28%
Sara Rodriguez
$5,610 Vol.
23%
David Crowley
$2,428 Vol.
8%
Kelda Roys
$0 Vol.
2%
Chris Larson
$8,374 Vol.
2%
Joel Brennan
$1,893 Vol.
1%
Tom Nelson
$0 Vol.
<1%
Brett Hulsey
$0 Vol.
<1%
Tim Jacobson
$1,504 Vol.
<1%
Melissa Agard
$0 Vol.
<1%
Missy Hughes
$0 Vol.
<1%
Zachary Roper
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent Marquette (March) and Patriot (mid-March) polls show State Rep. Francesca Hong leading former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in named Democratic primary preferences—Hong at 14-27%, Barnes 11-18%—yet extraordinarily high undecided rates of 43-65% underscore low voter engagement in this crowded field ahead of the August 11 primary. Traders price Barnes as the slim favorite at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting his edge in statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez trails at 23% despite her incumbency. The tight dynamics persist amid minimal consolidation; endorsements from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, superior fundraising, or early debates could tip momentum and separate frontrunners.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET
Volume
$32,324End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent Marquette (March) and Patriot (mid-March) polls show State Rep. Francesca Hong leading former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in named Democratic primary preferences—Hong at 14-27%, Barnes 11-18%—yet extraordinarily high undecided rates of 43-65% underscore low voter engagement in this crowded field ahead of the August 11 primary. Traders price Barnes as the slim favorite at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting his edge in statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez trails at 23% despite her incumbency. The tight dynamics persist amid minimal consolidation; endorsements from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, superior fundraising, or early debates could tip momentum and separate frontrunners.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$32,324End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Marquette (March) and Patriot (mid-March) polls show State Rep. Francesca Hong leading former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in named Democratic primary preferences—Hong at 14-27%, Barnes 11-18%—yet extraordinarily high undecided rates of 43-65% underscore low voter engagement in this crowded field ahead of the August 11 primary. Traders price Barnes as the slim favorite at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting his edge in statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race, while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez trails at 23% despite her incumbency. The tight dynamics persist amid minimal consolidation; endorsements from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, superior fundraising, or early debates could tip momentum and separate frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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