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Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Mandela Barnes 37%

Francesca Hong 27.6%

Sara Rodriguez 28%

Kelda Roys 3.7%

Polymarket

$48,990 Vol.

Mandela Barnes 37%

Francesca Hong 27.6%

Sara Rodriguez 28%

Kelda Roys 3.7%

Polymarket

$48,990 Vol.

Mandela Barnes

$8,036 Vol.

37%

Francesca Hong

$6,549 Vol.

28%

Sara Rodriguez

$8,594 Vol.

28%

Kelda Roys

$2,177 Vol.

4%

David Crowley

$2,887 Vol.

2%

Tim Jacobson

$1,697 Vol.

1%

Chris Larson

$8,560 Vol.

<1%

Joel Brennan

$2,023 Vol.

<1%

Zachary Roper

$1,590 Vol.

<1%

Tom Nelson

$1,581 Vol.

<1%

Melissa Agard

$2,047 Vol.

<1%

Missy Hughes

$1,676 Vol.

<1%

Brett Hulsey

$1,571 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary reflects a tight three-way contest among former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (36.5%), current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (28.5%), and Rep. Francesca Hong (27.6%), driven by high undecided rates—43-65%—in recent Marquette and Patriot polls from mid-March, signaling low voter engagement four months before the August 11 primary. Barnes holds a slight edge from statewide name recognition after his 2022 Senate bid and recent Collective PAC backing emphasizing general-election strength against Rep. Tom Tiffany, while Rodriguez leverages incumbency continuity and Hong gains from progressive endorsements like Nina Turner's. Recent catalysts include the April 14 teachers union nod to Sen. Kelda Roys and candidate forums on data centers and economy; upcoming fundraising reports, debates, and fresh polls could tip the balance in this crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$48,990
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary reflects a tight three-way contest among former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (36.5%), current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (28.5%), and Rep. Francesca Hong (27.6%), driven by high undecided rates—43-65%—in recent Marquette and Patriot polls from mid-March, signaling low voter engagement four months before the August 11 primary. Barnes holds a slight edge from statewide name recognition after his 2022 Senate bid and recent Collective PAC backing emphasizing general-election strength against Rep. Tom Tiffany, while Rodriguez leverages incumbency continuity and Hong gains from progressive endorsements like Nina Turner's. Recent catalysts include the April 14 teachers union nod to Sen. Kelda Roys and candidate forums on data centers and economy; upcoming fundraising reports, debates, and fresh polls could tip the balance in this crowded field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$48,990
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mandela Barnes" at 37%, followed by "Francesca Hong" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $49K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is "Mandela Barnes" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Francesca Hong" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.