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Politics·Primaries

WA-05 Primary Winners

icon for WA-05 Primary Winners
Politics·Primaries

WA-05 Primary Winners

$11,774 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026
Polymarket

$11,774 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Carmela Conroy

Carmela Conroy

$2,914 Vol.

87%

icon for Nate Powell

Nate Powell

$2,622 Vol.

3%

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.**Michael Baumgartner (R) and Carmela Conroy (D) advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary for Washington's 5th Congressional District.** Baumgartner, the first-term incumbent who previously served in the state Senate, captured roughly 47% of the vote and finished well ahead of the field in the Republican-leaning eastern Washington district that includes Spokane. Conroy, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former diplomat, secured second place with about 20%, ahead of independent Nate Powell (around 15%) and several other Democratic and independent challengers. Washington's nonpartisan primary system sends only the top two vote-getters to the November 3 general election, regardless of party. With results now available from county reporting and state certification processes, trader positioning reflects these confirmed tallies and the absence of any remaining procedural uncertainty in the primary phase.

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$11,774
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window extended

Final

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.**Michael Baumgartner (R) and Carmela Conroy (D) advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary for Washington's 5th Congressional District.** Baumgartner, the first-term incumbent who previously served in the state Senate, captured roughly 47% of the vote and finished well ahead of the field in the Republican-leaning eastern Washington district that includes Spokane. Conroy, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former diplomat, secured second place with about 20%, ahead of independent Nate Powell (around 15%) and several other Democratic and independent challengers. Washington's nonpartisan primary system sends only the top two vote-getters to the November 3 general election, regardless of party. With results now available from county reporting and state certification processes, trader positioning reflects these confirmed tallies and the absence of any remaining procedural uncertainty in the primary phase.

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$11,774
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-05 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window extended

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WA-05 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Baumgartner" at 100%, followed by "Carmela Conroy" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "WA-05 Primary Winners" has generated $11.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "WA-05 Primary Winners," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WA-05 Primary Winners" is "Michael Baumgartner" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carmela Conroy" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WA-05 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.