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icon for WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Mitchell Berman 100.0%

Miguel Aranda <1%

Peter Burgelis <1%

Lorenzo Santos <1%

$31,836 Vol.

Mitchell Berman 100.0%

Miguel Aranda <1%

Peter Burgelis <1%

Lorenzo Santos <1%

$31,836 Vol.

icon for Miguel Aranda

Miguel Aranda

$2,585 Vol.

No

icon for Mitchell Berman

Mitchell Berman

$24,271 Vol.

Yes

icon for Peter Burgelis

Peter Burgelis

$2,005 Vol.

No

icon for Lorenzo Santos

Lorenzo Santos

$2,975 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District in the August 11 primary, driving the market's 100% consensus on his outcome. He entered the race earliest, raised substantially more funds than rivals Miguel Aranda and Lorenzo Santos, and secured key endorsements from the United Auto Workers and multiple state legislators. His profile as an emergency room nurse with union ties and a rural working-class background aligned with district priorities ahead of the general election matchup against incumbent Bryan Steil. Other candidates either withdrew with endorsements for Berman or finished far behind in vote totals. Late-breaking developments such as a successful recount challenge or official certification disputes remain the only plausible paths that could shift resolution, though none have emerged.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$31,836
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District in the August 11 primary, driving the market's 100% consensus on his outcome. He entered the race earliest, raised substantially more funds than rivals Miguel Aranda and Lorenzo Santos, and secured key endorsements from the United Auto Workers and multiple state legislators. His profile as an emergency room nurse with union ties and a rural working-class background aligned with district priorities ahead of the general election matchup against incumbent Bryan Steil. Other candidates either withdrew with endorsements for Berman or finished far behind in vote totals. Late-breaking developments such as a successful recount challenge or official certification disputes remain the only plausible paths that could shift resolution, though none have emerged.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$31,836
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mitchell Berman" at 100%, followed by "Miguel Aranda" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $31.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Mitchell Berman" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Miguel Aranda" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.