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Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Aaron Guckian 64.6%

Elaine Pelino 19%

Robert Raimondo 7.7%

Ashley Kalus 4.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian 64.6%

Elaine Pelino 19%

Robert Raimondo 7.7%

Ashley Kalus 4.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian

$0 Vol.

55%

Elaine Pelino

$0 Vol.

28%

Robert Raimondo

$0 Vol.

8%

Ashley Kalus

$0 Vol.

5%

Jessica de la Cruz

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as frontrunner in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his name recognition from the 2022 lieutenant governor race, early campaign launch in December 2025, and a March 25 event exposing excessive state consultant spending to redirect funds toward local priorities like union workers. Elaine Pelino trails at second after her recent Providence County GOP candidates forum appearance, emphasizing commonsense reforms amid her November 2025 announcement as a former actress entering politics. Lower odds for Robert Raimondo, Ashley Kalus—who polled well hypothetically in February—and Jessica de la Cruz stem from limited recent visibility in a field lacking public polls, with the September 8 primary six months away.

Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as frontrunner in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his name recognition from the 2022 lieutenant governor race, early campaign launch in December 2025, and a March 25 event exposing excessive state consultant spending to redirect funds toward local priorities like union workers. Elaine Pelino trails at second after her recent Providence County GOP candidates forum appearance, emphasizing commonsense reforms amid her November 2025 announcement as a former actress entering politics. Lower odds for Robert Raimondo, Ashley Kalus—who polled well hypothetically in February—and Jessica de la Cruz stem from limited recent visibility in a field lacking public polls, with the September 8 primary six months away.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as frontrunner in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his name recognition from the 2022 lieutenant governor race, early campaign launch in December 2025, and a March 25 event exposing excessive state consultant spending to redirect funds toward local priorities like union workers. Elaine Pelino trails at second after her recent Providence County GOP candidates forum appearance, emphasizing commonsense reforms amid her November 2025 announcement as a former actress entering politics. Lower odds for Robert Raimondo, Ashley Kalus—who polled well hypothetically in February—and Jessica de la Cruz stem from limited recent visibility in a field lacking public polls, with the September 8 primary six months away.

Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as frontrunner in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting his name recognition from the 2022 lieutenant governor race, early campaign launch in December 2025, and a March 25 event exposing excessive state consultant spending to redirect funds toward local priorities like union workers. Elaine Pelino trails at second after her recent Providence County GOP candidates forum appearance, emphasizing commonsense reforms amid her November 2025 announcement as a former actress entering politics. Lower odds for Robert Raimondo, Ashley Kalus—who polled well hypothetically in February—and Jessica de la Cruz stem from limited recent visibility in a field lacking public polls, with the September 8 primary six months away.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Guckian" at 55%, followed by "Elaine Pelino" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 11, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Aaron Guckian" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elaine Pelino" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.