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icon for HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Ed Case 100.0%

Jennifer Booker <1%

Ben Fatula <1%

Nicholas Kiswanto <1%

Polymarket

$95,719 Vol.

Ed Case 100.0%

Jennifer Booker <1%

Ben Fatula <1%

Nicholas Kiswanto <1%

Polymarket

$95,719 Vol.

icon for Jennifer Booker

Jennifer Booker

$749 Vol.

No

icon for Ben Fatula

Ben Fatula

$649 Vol.

No

icon for Nicholas Kiswanto

Nicholas Kiswanto

$950 Vol.

No

icon for Ed Case

Ed Case

$59,550 Vol.

Yes

icon for Jarrett Keohokalole

Jarrett Keohokalole

$33,821 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 8, 2026 primary, reflecting strong incumbent support against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and lesser-known challengers. Voter preferences favored Case's established record on appropriations, district-specific projects, and moderate positioning within the caucus, despite national attention on generational and ideological contrasts and polling that showed an initially competitive race with many undecided participants. Recent results, with Case capturing roughly 60 percent of the vote, have consolidated trader consensus around his nomination. Late final canvassing or formal certification could still influence timing, though they are unlikely to alter the outcome given the reported margin.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$95,719
End Date
Aug 8, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the August 8, 2026 primary, reflecting strong incumbent support against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and lesser-known challengers. Voter preferences favored Case's established record on appropriations, district-specific projects, and moderate positioning within the caucus, despite national attention on generational and ideological contrasts and polling that showed an initially competitive race with many undecided participants. Recent results, with Case capturing roughly 60 percent of the vote, have consolidated trader consensus around his nomination. Late final canvassing or formal certification could still influence timing, though they are unlikely to alter the outcome given the reported margin.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$95,719
End Date
Aug 8, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ed Case" at 100%, followed by "Jennifer Booker" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $95.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ed Case" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jennifer Booker" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.