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Politics·Manchester

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Manchester

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner

Bev Craig 100.0%

Marlon Scott West <1%

Kate Green <1%

Laura Evans <1%

Polymarket

$426,582 Vol.

Bev Craig 100.0%

Marlon Scott West <1%

Kate Green <1%

Laura Evans <1%

Polymarket

$426,582 Vol.

icon for Marlon Scott West

Marlon Scott West

$28,380 Vol.

No

icon for Kate Green

Kate Green

$3,367 Vol.

No

icon for Laura Evans

Laura Evans

$8,796 Vol.

No

icon for Dan Barker

Dan Barker

$26,078 Vol.

No

icon for Richard Kilpatrick

Richard Kilpatrick

$1,849 Vol.

No

icon for Sian Astley

Sian Astley

$21,114 Vol.

No

icon for Hannah Spencer

Hannah Spencer

$5,316 Vol.

No

icon for Jake Austin

Jake Austin

$1,565 Vol.

No

icon for Paul Dennett

Paul Dennett

$2,625 Vol.

No

icon for Nick Buckley

Nick Buckley

$6,714 Vol.

No

icon for Bev Craig

Bev Craig

$244,273 Vol.

Yes

icon for Arooj Shah

Arooj Shah

$1,829 Vol.

No

icon for Geraldine Coggins

Geraldine Coggins

$72,504 Vol.

No

icon for George Galloway

George Galloway

$2,170 Vol.

No

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive victory in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, capturing 66.3% in the second round against Reform UK's Sian Astley. As the Labour and Co-operative Party nominee and Manchester City Council leader, Craig benefited from strong party infrastructure, name recognition across the region, and pledges to expand affordable public transport options such as the Bee Network fare caps. The contest followed the departure of the prior officeholder, creating an open race where Labour's established voter base in the combined authority delivered a commanding margin. With results now confirmed, market pricing at 100% for Craig reflects the completed vote count, though final certification or any narrow procedural disputes could theoretically prompt minor adjustments before full resolution.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$426,582
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Bev Craig secured a decisive victory in the July 30, 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, capturing 66.3% in the second round against Reform UK's Sian Astley. As the Labour and Co-operative Party nominee and Manchester City Council leader, Craig benefited from strong party infrastructure, name recognition across the region, and pledges to expand affordable public transport options such as the Bee Network fare caps. The contest followed the departure of the prior officeholder, creating an open race where Labour's established voter base in the combined authority delivered a commanding margin. With results now confirmed, market pricing at 100% for Craig reflects the completed vote count, though final certification or any narrow procedural disputes could theoretically prompt minor adjustments before full resolution.

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$426,582
End Date
Jul 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bev Craig" at 100%, followed by "Marlon Scott West" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $426.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner" is "Bev Craig" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marlon Scott West" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.