Recent Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls from mid-March show a fragmented field in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, with Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling at 16-17% and Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer clustered at 10-17%, alongside 16-25% undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Dem-Rep advancement at 67.5% as the most likely outcome, reflecting the consolidated GOP vote positioning one Republican in the top two while no single Democrat dominates amid eight contenders splitting support. The March 18 Berkeley poll elevated Rep-Rep odds to 12% by highlighting a narrow GOP lead, spurring Democratic concerns over a potential lockout, though high undecideds and Dem consolidation potential sustain Dem-Dem at 19.5%; affordability tops voter priorities ahead of ballot mailing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDem-Rep 68%
Dem-Dem 21%
Rep-Rep 10.8%
$44,974 Vol.
$44,974 Vol.
Jun 2, 2026
Dem-Rep
68%
Dem-Dem
21%
Rep-Rep
11%
Dem-Rep 68%
Dem-Dem 21%
Rep-Rep 10.8%
$44,974 Vol.
$44,974 Vol.
Jun 2, 2026
Dem-Rep
$20,187 Vol.
68%
Dem-Dem
$19,120 Vol.
21%
Rep-Rep
$5,667 Vol.
11%
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Recent Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls from mid-March show a fragmented field in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, with Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling at 16-17% and Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer clustered at 10-17%, alongside 16-25% undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Dem-Rep advancement at 67.5% as the most likely outcome, reflecting the consolidated GOP vote positioning one Republican in the top two while no single Democrat dominates amid eight contenders splitting support. The March 18 Berkeley poll elevated Rep-Rep odds to 12% by highlighting a narrow GOP lead, spurring Democratic concerns over a potential lockout, though high undecideds and Dem consolidation potential sustain Dem-Dem at 19.5%; affordability tops voter priorities ahead of ballot mailing.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$44,974End Date
Jun 2, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.Recent Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls from mid-March show a fragmented field in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, with Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling at 16-17% and Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer clustered at 10-17%, alongside 16-25% undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Dem-Rep advancement at 67.5% as the most likely outcome, reflecting the consolidated GOP vote positioning one Republican in the top two while no single Democrat dominates amid eight contenders splitting support. The March 18 Berkeley poll elevated Rep-Rep odds to 12% by highlighting a narrow GOP lead, spurring Democratic concerns over a potential lockout, though high undecideds and Dem consolidation potential sustain Dem-Dem at 19.5%; affordability tops voter priorities ahead of ballot mailing.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.
In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$44,974End Date
Jun 2, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls from mid-March show a fragmented field in California's top-two gubernatorial primary on June 2, with Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco polling at 16-17% and Democrats Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer clustered at 10-17%, alongside 16-25% undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Dem-Rep advancement at 67.5% as the most likely outcome, reflecting the consolidated GOP vote positioning one Republican in the top two while no single Democrat dominates amid eight contenders splitting support. The March 18 Berkeley poll elevated Rep-Rep odds to 12% by highlighting a narrow GOP lead, spurring Democratic concerns over a potential lockout, though high undecideds and Dem consolidation potential sustain Dem-Dem at 19.5%; affordability tops voter priorities ahead of ballot mailing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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