Recent polls from early April, including Quaest (Lula 44%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%) and Futura/Apex (Lula 39.9%, Flávio 37.3%), show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with margins typically 2–6 points amid fragmented fields featuring low support for Ratinho Júnior, Tarcísio de Freitas, and others—ensuring no outright victory on October 4. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval per Nexus/BTG Pactual, its worst spread since mid-2025, fueling trader consensus on sub-10% margins as the race tightens six months out. Flávio's consolidation as the right-wing challenger, backed by his father's base, keeps his narrow-win odds viable at 19.5%, while distant fields cap broader outcomes. Upcoming surveys and economic data could shift this closely contested dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 24%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.6%
$221,592 Vol.
$221,592 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
24%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
19%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
5%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 24%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.6%
$221,592 Vol.
$221,592 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,832 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,646 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,121 Vol.
24%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,995 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,140 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,363 Vol.
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,806 Vol.
19%
Renan Santos Victory
$199,285 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$800 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,034 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,568 Vol.
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early April, including Quaest (Lula 44%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%) and Futura/Apex (Lula 39.9%, Flávio 37.3%), show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with margins typically 2–6 points amid fragmented fields featuring low support for Ratinho Júnior, Tarcísio de Freitas, and others—ensuring no outright victory on October 4. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval per Nexus/BTG Pactual, its worst spread since mid-2025, fueling trader consensus on sub-10% margins as the race tightens six months out. Flávio's consolidation as the right-wing challenger, backed by his father's base, keeps his narrow-win odds viable at 19.5%, while distant fields cap broader outcomes. Upcoming surveys and economic data could shift this closely contested dynamic.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$221,592End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early April, including Quaest (Lula 44%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%) and Futura/Apex (Lula 39.9%, Flávio 37.3%), show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with margins typically 2–6 points amid fragmented fields featuring low support for Ratinho Júnior, Tarcísio de Freitas, and others—ensuring no outright victory on October 4. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval per Nexus/BTG Pactual, its worst spread since mid-2025, fueling trader consensus on sub-10% margins as the race tightens six months out. Flávio's consolidation as the right-wing challenger, backed by his father's base, keeps his narrow-win odds viable at 19.5%, while distant fields cap broader outcomes. Upcoming surveys and economic data could shift this closely contested dynamic.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$221,592End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from early April, including Quaest (Lula 44%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%) and Futura/Apex (Lula 39.9%, Flávio 37.3%), show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with margins typically 2–6 points amid fragmented fields featuring low support for Ratinho Júnior, Tarcísio de Freitas, and others—ensuring no outright victory on October 4. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval per Nexus/BTG Pactual, its worst spread since mid-2025, fueling trader consensus on sub-10% margins as the race tightens six months out. Flávio's consolidation as the right-wing challenger, backed by his father's base, keeps his narrow-win odds viable at 19.5%, while distant fields cap broader outcomes. Upcoming surveys and economic data could shift this closely contested dynamic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
67%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
14%
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