Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.0%
$206,675 Vol.
$206,675 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
24%
Renan Santos Victory
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
6%
Other
9%
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 24%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.0%
$206,675 Vol.
$206,675 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,572 Vol.
7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,343 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$2,034 Vol.
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,625 Vol.
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$734 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$754 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,584 Vol.
24%
Renan Santos Victory
$192,744 Vol.
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$536 Vol.
2%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$823 Vol.
6%
Other
$926 Vol.
9%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$206,675End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$206,675End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from late March, including Nexus/BTG, Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, with margins of 2-5.8% between the top two amid a fragmented field of candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and others. Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal on March 23 failed to consolidate the right, maintaining the tight race and low odds of any outright 50%+ victory. Trader consensus reflects this polling average, pricing Lula da Silva's narrow <5% margin lead at 40% implied probability, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% at 23.5%, as the October 4 first round approaches with high uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
59%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
16%
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