Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ratinho Júnior at 44% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by his high approval ratings as Paraná governor and positioning as a pragmatic center-right alternative amid fragmented opposition to President Lula. Renan Santos follows at 28.5%, buoyed by rising visibility in youth-focused polls and regional strength in the Northeast, while Romeu Zema's 9.5% reflects Minas Gerais popularity tempered by national expansion challenges. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show governors like Ratinho and Tarcísio de Freitas dominating behind Lula's lead, elevating their rivals for bronze; Zema and Flávio Bolsonaro gain from Bolsonaro family endorsements but trail due to legal hurdles on ex-President Jair. Upcoming party conventions in 2025 could shift alliances and polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRatinho Júnior 50%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%
$16,671 Vol.
$16,671 Vol.

Ratinho Júnior
45%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
10%

Flávio Bolsonaro
10%

Ronaldo Caiado
7%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Michelle Bolsonaro
3%

Geraldo Alckmin
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
6%
Ratinho Júnior 50%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%
$16,671 Vol.
$16,671 Vol.

Ratinho Júnior
45%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
10%

Flávio Bolsonaro
10%

Ronaldo Caiado
7%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Michelle Bolsonaro
3%

Geraldo Alckmin
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ratinho Júnior at 44% implied probability for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, driven by his high approval ratings as Paraná governor and positioning as a pragmatic center-right alternative amid fragmented opposition to President Lula. Renan Santos follows at 28.5%, buoyed by rising visibility in youth-focused polls and regional strength in the Northeast, while Romeu Zema's 9.5% reflects Minas Gerais popularity tempered by national expansion challenges. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys show governors like Ratinho and Tarcísio de Freitas dominating behind Lula's lead, elevating their rivals for bronze; Zema and Flávio Bolsonaro gain from Bolsonaro family endorsements but trail due to legal hurdles on ex-President Jair. Upcoming party conventions in 2025 could shift alliances and polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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