Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, reflecting the procedural hurdles and historical rarity of such removals, which require a two-thirds Senate vote on crimes of responsibility. Record impeachment petitions—over 80 filed in the Senate by February 2026, led by 46 against Justice Alexandre de Moraes—have stalled amid a December 2025 STF ruling by Gilmar Mendes limiting initiations to the procurador-geral da República (PGR), sparking congressional backlash and proposals for new legislation. Recent March 2026 tensions, including STF reversals of parliamentary inquiries and opposition calls from figures like Governor Romeu Zema, have fueled rhetoric but yielded no active processes or scheduled votes, with Senate leadership showing restraint ahead of October 2026 elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$54,134 Vol.
$54,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$54,134 Vol.
$54,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, reflecting the procedural hurdles and historical rarity of such removals, which require a two-thirds Senate vote on crimes of responsibility. Record impeachment petitions—over 80 filed in the Senate by February 2026, led by 46 against Justice Alexandre de Moraes—have stalled amid a December 2025 STF ruling by Gilmar Mendes limiting initiations to the procurador-geral da República (PGR), sparking congressional backlash and proposals for new legislation. Recent March 2026 tensions, including STF reversals of parliamentary inquiries and opposition calls from figures like Governor Romeu Zema, have fueled rhetoric but yielded no active processes or scheduled votes, with Senate leadership showing restraint ahead of October 2026 elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$54,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, reflecting the procedural hurdles and historical rarity of such removals, which require a two-thirds Senate vote on crimes of responsibility. Record impeachment petitions—over 80 filed in the Senate by February 2026, led by 46 against Justice Alexandre de Moraes—have stalled amid a December 2025 STF ruling by Gilmar Mendes limiting initiations to the procurador-geral da República (PGR), sparking congressional backlash and proposals for new legislation. Recent March 2026 tensions, including STF reversals of parliamentary inquiries and opposition calls from figures like Governor Romeu Zema, have fueled rhetoric but yielded no active processes or scheduled votes, with Senate leadership showing restraint ahead of October 2026 elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$54,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, reflecting the procedural hurdles and historical rarity of such removals, which require a two-thirds Senate vote on crimes of responsibility. Record impeachment petitions—over 80 filed in the Senate by February 2026, led by 46 against Justice Alexandre de Moraes—have stalled amid a December 2025 STF ruling by Gilmar Mendes limiting initiations to the procurador-geral da República (PGR), sparking congressional backlash and proposals for new legislation. Recent March 2026 tensions, including STF reversals of parliamentary inquiries and opposition calls from figures like Governor Romeu Zema, have fueled rhetoric but yielded no active processes or scheduled votes, with Senate leadership showing restraint ahead of October 2026 elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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