The 82.5% implied probability for no Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 reflects the formidable procedural barriers and lack of legislative momentum in Congress. Removing a Supremo Tribunal Federal justice demands absolute majority approval (257 votes) in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—a threshold never cleared in modern Brazilian history. Recent denunciations targeting justices like Alexandre de Moraes, amid controversies over social media regulations and election probes, have stalled or been archived without advancing to votes, with the most recent rejections in mid-2024. No fresh impeachment requests or congressional actions in the past 30 days have emerged to shift trader consensus, underscoring entrenched institutional stability under the Lula administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$54,134 Vol.
$54,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$54,134 Vol.
$54,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 82.5% implied probability for no Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 reflects the formidable procedural barriers and lack of legislative momentum in Congress. Removing a Supremo Tribunal Federal justice demands absolute majority approval (257 votes) in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—a threshold never cleared in modern Brazilian history. Recent denunciations targeting justices like Alexandre de Moraes, amid controversies over social media regulations and election probes, have stalled or been archived without advancing to votes, with the most recent rejections in mid-2024. No fresh impeachment requests or congressional actions in the past 30 days have emerged to shift trader consensus, underscoring entrenched institutional stability under the Lula administration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$54,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 82.5% implied probability for no Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 reflects the formidable procedural barriers and lack of legislative momentum in Congress. Removing a Supremo Tribunal Federal justice demands absolute majority approval (257 votes) in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—a threshold never cleared in modern Brazilian history. Recent denunciations targeting justices like Alexandre de Moraes, amid controversies over social media regulations and election probes, have stalled or been archived without advancing to votes, with the most recent rejections in mid-2024. No fresh impeachment requests or congressional actions in the past 30 days have emerged to shift trader consensus, underscoring entrenched institutional stability under the Lula administration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$54,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 82.5% implied probability for no Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 reflects the formidable procedural barriers and lack of legislative momentum in Congress. Removing a Supremo Tribunal Federal justice demands absolute majority approval (257 votes) in the Chamber of Deputies, followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—a threshold never cleared in modern Brazilian history. Recent denunciations targeting justices like Alexandre de Moraes, amid controversies over social media regulations and election probes, have stalled or been archived without advancing to votes, with the most recent rejections in mid-2024. No fresh impeachment requests or congressional actions in the past 30 days have emerged to shift trader consensus, underscoring entrenched institutional stability under the Lula administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
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