Name: ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Start: 2026-01-08T16:01:01.237349Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any state or federally elected Minnesota politician for fraud, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.




Clavicular charged by Jan 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, and the charged person is officially deported from the United States by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of a person from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Bill Clinton between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Bill Clinton charged by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Ilhan Omar for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tim Mynett for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ilhan Omar's husband be charged with fraud?

This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the US strike Somalia next?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ryan Wedding arrested by June 30?

On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that here: https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/18/gop-state-sen-justin-eichorn-arrested-for-suspicion-of-soliciting-sex-with-a-16-year-old-girl/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to soliciting a minor sexual activity in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Eichorn is never charged with soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case, or otherwise all charges related to soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all solicitation of a minor charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


Senator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tim Walz in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Clavicular in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs in jail by March 31?

The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.

The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that American International Group (AIG) Insurance will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Chubb Insurance, or vice versa, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Chubb or AIG will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Chubb or AIG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.

For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.

U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Atlantic" this week? (January 11)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton in jail by January 31?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

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Market Context

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

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ICE shooter charged by March 31?

Order Book

Market Context

ICE shooter charged by March 31?

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