No authorization of a U.S. military draft has occurred or advanced in Congress as of late May 2026. The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men ages 18-26 beginning in December, updating an existing registry without amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction. Officials have stated the all-volunteer force remains the baseline, with no emergency declaration or legislation proposed to restore conscription despite tensions involving Iran. This absence of congressional action or presidential requests for draft authority underpins the 92.5% trader-implied probability against authorization this year. A sudden major escalation exceeding recruitment capacity or new legislation could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$311,687 Vol.
$311,687 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$311,687 Vol.
$311,687 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No authorization of a U.S. military draft has occurred or advanced in Congress as of late May 2026. The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men ages 18-26 beginning in December, updating an existing registry without amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction. Officials have stated the all-volunteer force remains the baseline, with no emergency declaration or legislation proposed to restore conscription despite tensions involving Iran. This absence of congressional action or presidential requests for draft authority underpins the 92.5% trader-implied probability against authorization this year. A sudden major escalation exceeding recruitment capacity or new legislation could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$311,687Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No authorization of a U.S. military draft has occurred or advanced in Congress as of late May 2026. The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men ages 18-26 beginning in December, updating an existing registry without amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction. Officials have stated the all-volunteer force remains the baseline, with no emergency declaration or legislation proposed to restore conscription despite tensions involving Iran. This absence of congressional action or presidential requests for draft authority underpins the 92.5% trader-implied probability against authorization this year. A sudden major escalation exceeding recruitment capacity or new legislation could still shift the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$311,687Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No authorization of a U.S. military draft has occurred or advanced in Congress as of late May 2026. The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, signed in December 2025, mandates only automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men ages 18-26 beginning in December, updating an existing registry without amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction. Officials have stated the all-volunteer force remains the baseline, with no emergency declaration or legislation proposed to restore conscription despite tensions involving Iran. This absence of congressional action or presidential requests for draft authority underpins the 92.5% trader-implied probability against authorization this year. A sudden major escalation exceeding recruitment capacity or new legislation could still shift the outlook before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes