The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and authorizing inductions under the Military Selective Service Act would require separate congressional legislation and presidential approval triggered by a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. Recent developments, including automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 under the FY2026 NDAA, represent only an administrative update to database management rather than activation of conscription. No active conflict or manpower shortfall currently meets the threshold for such measures, and reinstating a draft remains widely viewed as politically untenable. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no authorization reflects these structural and political barriers. Late-breaking developments, such as a major escalation in overseas commitments or acute recruitment shortfalls, could still shift conditions within the remainder of the year.