Traders assign a 92.5% probability that Congress will not authorize a U.S. military draft in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to grant the president induction authority, a step with no active bills or bipartisan momentum. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without interruption, and recent developments focus instead on streamlining Selective Service registration through automatic processes effective December 2026 under the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. A May 2026 bipartisan Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System entirely further signals institutional resistance. While geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open, no national emergency or legislative process has advanced draft authorization, leaving the outcome dependent on future congressional action that remains absent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$257,562 वॉल्यूम
$257,562 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$257,562 वॉल्यूम
$257,562 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 92.5% probability that Congress will not authorize a U.S. military draft in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to grant the president induction authority, a step with no active bills or bipartisan momentum. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without interruption, and recent developments focus instead on streamlining Selective Service registration through automatic processes effective December 2026 under the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. A May 2026 bipartisan Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System entirely further signals institutional resistance. While geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open, no national emergency or legislative process has advanced draft authorization, leaving the outcome dependent on future congressional action that remains absent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$257,562समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 92.5% probability that Congress will not authorize a U.S. military draft in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to grant the president induction authority, a step with no active bills or bipartisan momentum. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without interruption, and recent developments focus instead on streamlining Selective Service registration through automatic processes effective December 2026 under the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. A May 2026 bipartisan Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System entirely further signals institutional resistance. While geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open, no national emergency or legislative process has advanced draft authorization, leaving the outcome dependent on future congressional action that remains absent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$257,562समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.5% probability that Congress will not authorize a U.S. military draft in 2026 because reinstating conscription requires specific legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to grant the president induction authority, a step with no active bills or bipartisan momentum. The all-volunteer force has operated since 1973 without interruption, and recent developments focus instead on streamlining Selective Service registration through automatic processes effective December 2026 under the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. A May 2026 bipartisan Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System entirely further signals institutional resistance. While geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open, no national emergency or legislative process has advanced draft authorization, leaving the outcome dependent on future congressional action that remains absent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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