Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% implied probability for "No" as Condoleezza Rice has shown no signs of formal involvement in the Trump administration more than a year after inauguration, with cabinet and key roles filled early via confirmed announcements. Recent White House visits in early March 2026 and advisory comments urging action on Iran remain informal consultations, not indicators of onboarding, amid her ongoing Stanford Hoover role and past Bush-era neoconservative baggage drawing MAGA skepticism. With under four weeks to April 30, absent a sudden vacancy, resignation, or surprise nomination requiring Senate confirmation, the window for a realistic shift narrows sharply.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% implied probability for "No" as Condoleezza Rice has shown no signs of formal involvement in the Trump administration more than a year after inauguration, with cabinet and key roles filled early via confirmed announcements. Recent White House visits in early March 2026 and advisory comments urging action on Iran remain informal consultations, not indicators of onboarding, amid her ongoing Stanford Hoover role and past Bush-era neoconservative baggage drawing MAGA skepticism. With under four weeks to April 30, absent a sudden vacancy, resignation, or surprise nomination requiring Senate confirmation, the window for a realistic shift narrows sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,705End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% implied probability for "No" as Condoleezza Rice has shown no signs of formal involvement in the Trump administration more than a year after inauguration, with cabinet and key roles filled early via confirmed announcements. Recent White House visits in early March 2026 and advisory comments urging action on Iran remain informal consultations, not indicators of onboarding, amid her ongoing Stanford Hoover role and past Bush-era neoconservative baggage drawing MAGA skepticism. With under four weeks to April 30, absent a sudden vacancy, resignation, or surprise nomination requiring Senate confirmation, the window for a realistic shift narrows sharply.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Condoleezza Rice to his administration between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,705End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 95.7% implied probability for "No" as Condoleezza Rice has shown no signs of formal involvement in the Trump administration more than a year after inauguration, with cabinet and key roles filled early via confirmed announcements. Recent White House visits in early March 2026 and advisory comments urging action on Iran remain informal consultations, not indicators of onboarding, amid her ongoing Stanford Hoover role and past Bush-era neoconservative baggage drawing MAGA skepticism. With under four weeks to April 30, absent a sudden vacancy, resignation, or surprise nomination requiring Senate confirmation, the window for a realistic shift narrows sharply.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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