Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 39.5%, driven by reports that President Trump is considering firing her as Director of National Intelligence amid reported disagreements over Iran policy, following her congressional testimony distancing from administration decisions and the recent resignation of DNI counterterrorism director Joe Kent. This follows high-profile ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in recent weeks, heightening perceptions of cabinet instability. Pete Hegseth ranks second at 22.5% after Defense Secretary-directed shake-ups, including asking the US Army chief of staff to step down and firing top military lawyers, sparking concerns over rules of engagement. Howard Lutnick trails amid Commerce Secretary conflict-of-interest probes, while "None before 2027" at 11% reflects expectations of further executive branch turnover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTulsi Gabbard 50%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 30%
Pete Hegseth 25%
Doug Burgum 18%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
40%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
18%
Pete Hegseth
25%
Doug Burgum
18%
Chris Wright
17%
Russell T. Vought
17%
Howard Lutnick
16%
Susie Wiles
16%
Mike Waltz
16%
Scott Bessent
16%
None before 2027
11%
Lee Zeldin
7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4%
J.D. Vance
3%
Marco Rubio
17%
Brooke Rollins
18%
Scott Turner
17%
Sean Duffy
18%
Linda McMahon
16%
Doug Collins
17%
John Ratcliffe
16%
Jamieson Greer
17%
Kelly Loeffler
16%
Tulsi Gabbard 50%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 30%
Pete Hegseth 25%
Doug Burgum 18%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$37 Vol.
40%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$86 Vol.
18%
Pete Hegseth
$52 Vol.
25%
Doug Burgum
$10 Vol.
18%
Chris Wright
$10 Vol.
17%
Russell T. Vought
$11 Vol.
17%
Howard Lutnick
$15 Vol.
16%
Susie Wiles
$11 Vol.
16%
Mike Waltz
$10 Vol.
16%
Scott Bessent
$10 Vol.
16%
None before 2027
$11 Vol.
11%
Lee Zeldin
$711 Vol.
7%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$13 Vol.
4%
J.D. Vance
$11 Vol.
3%
Marco Rubio
$11 Vol.
17%
Brooke Rollins
$10 Vol.
18%
Scott Turner
$10 Vol.
17%
Sean Duffy
$10 Vol.
18%
Linda McMahon
$10 Vol.
16%
Doug Collins
$10 Vol.
17%
John Ratcliffe
$10 Vol.
16%
Jamieson Greer
$10 Vol.
17%
Kelly Loeffler
$10 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 39.5%, driven by reports that President Trump is considering firing her as Director of National Intelligence amid reported disagreements over Iran policy, following her congressional testimony distancing from administration decisions and the recent resignation of DNI counterterrorism director Joe Kent. This follows high-profile ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in recent weeks, heightening perceptions of cabinet instability. Pete Hegseth ranks second at 22.5% after Defense Secretary-directed shake-ups, including asking the US Army chief of staff to step down and firing top military lawyers, sparking concerns over rules of engagement. Howard Lutnick trails amid Commerce Secretary conflict-of-interest probes, while "None before 2027" at 11% reflects expectations of further executive branch turnover.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,085End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 39.5%, driven by reports that President Trump is considering firing her as Director of National Intelligence amid reported disagreements over Iran policy, following her congressional testimony distancing from administration decisions and the recent resignation of DNI counterterrorism director Joe Kent. This follows high-profile ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in recent weeks, heightening perceptions of cabinet instability. Pete Hegseth ranks second at 22.5% after Defense Secretary-directed shake-ups, including asking the US Army chief of staff to step down and firing top military lawyers, sparking concerns over rules of engagement. Howard Lutnick trails amid Commerce Secretary conflict-of-interest probes, while "None before 2027" at 11% reflects expectations of further executive branch turnover.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,085End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Tulsi Gabbard as the next Trump cabinet departure at 39.5%, driven by reports that President Trump is considering firing her as Director of National Intelligence amid reported disagreements over Iran policy, following her congressional testimony distancing from administration decisions and the recent resignation of DNI counterterrorism director Joe Kent. This follows high-profile ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in recent weeks, heightening perceptions of cabinet instability. Pete Hegseth ranks second at 22.5% after Defense Secretary-directed shake-ups, including asking the US Army chief of staff to step down and firing top military lawyers, sparking concerns over rules of engagement. Howard Lutnick trails amid Commerce Secretary conflict-of-interest probes, while "None before 2027" at 11% reflects expectations of further executive branch turnover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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