Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi ousted on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem removed in early March, have driven trader consensus toward elevated probabilities for further cabinet turnover before year-end 2026. Polymarket odds reflect this, pricing Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 83% and FBI Director Kash Patel at 82% to exit, fueled by April reports of active White House discussions on their tenures and fresh claims of Patel's job paranoia amid allegations of excessive drinking. Brookings notes 32% A-team turnover as of mid-April, echoing first-term patterns, with ICE acting director Todd Lyons set to resign by May's end potentially accelerating shifts ahead of 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,012,867 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
86%
Kash Patel
83%
Kristi Noem
56%
Tulsi Gabbard
51%
Howard Lutnick
50%
Lee Zeldin
42%
Pete Hegseth
41%
Tom Homan
26%
Karoline Leavitt
39%
David Sacks
36%
Susie Wiles
32%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
29%
John Ratcliffe
28%
Russell Vought
26%
Scott Bessent
25%
Stephen Miller
22%
Marco Rubio
19%
Dan Scavino
34%
$1,012,867 Vol.
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$5,613 Vol.
86%
Kash Patel
$210,897 Vol.
83%
Kristi Noem
$87,083 Vol.
56%
Tulsi Gabbard
$49,503 Vol.
51%
Howard Lutnick
$60,595 Vol.
50%
Lee Zeldin
$26,545 Vol.
42%
Pete Hegseth
$65,535 Vol.
41%
Tom Homan
$58 Vol.
26%
Karoline Leavitt
$16,950 Vol.
39%
David Sacks
$7,318 Vol.
36%
Susie Wiles
$42,260 Vol.
32%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$64,426 Vol.
29%
John Ratcliffe
$0 Vol.
28%
Russell Vought
$134 Vol.
26%
Scott Bessent
$997 Vol.
25%
Stephen Miller
$871 Vol.
22%
Marco Rubio
$3,588 Vol.
19%
Dan Scavino
$31 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi ousted on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem removed in early March, have driven trader consensus toward elevated probabilities for further cabinet turnover before year-end 2026. Polymarket odds reflect this, pricing Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 83% and FBI Director Kash Patel at 82% to exit, fueled by April reports of active White House discussions on their tenures and fresh claims of Patel's job paranoia amid allegations of excessive drinking. Brookings notes 32% A-team turnover as of mid-April, echoing first-term patterns, with ICE acting director Todd Lyons set to resign by May's end potentially accelerating shifts ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$1,012,867End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi ousted on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem removed in early March, have driven trader consensus toward elevated probabilities for further cabinet turnover before year-end 2026. Polymarket odds reflect this, pricing Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 83% and FBI Director Kash Patel at 82% to exit, fueled by April reports of active White House discussions on their tenures and fresh claims of Patel's job paranoia amid allegations of excessive drinking. Brookings notes 32% A-team turnover as of mid-April, echoing first-term patterns, with ICE acting director Todd Lyons set to resign by May's end potentially accelerating shifts ahead of 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,012,867End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi ousted on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem removed in early March, have driven trader consensus toward elevated probabilities for further cabinet turnover before year-end 2026. Polymarket odds reflect this, pricing Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 83% and FBI Director Kash Patel at 82% to exit, fueled by April reports of active White House discussions on their tenures and fresh claims of Patel's job paranoia amid allegations of excessive drinking. Brookings notes 32% A-team turnover as of mid-April, echoing first-term patterns, with ICE acting director Todd Lyons set to resign by May's end potentially accelerating shifts ahead of 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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