Recent CNN and UMass polls released in late March and early April 2026 show President Trump's approval rating sinking to new second-term lows around 33%, with disapproval nearing 60%, amid escalating U.S. involvement in the Iran war, the longest partial government shutdown in history, and economic headwinds like rising gas prices and inflation. These developments, highlighted in Nate Silver's daily Silver Bulletin tracking—which this market uses for resolution—have eroded support even among core Republicans, per The Hill reporting. Traders' 70% implied probability on "Down" reflects this downward polling trend over the past week, with no major positive catalysts emerging ahead of midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUp
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Apr 11, 2026
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Apr 11, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CNN and UMass polls released in late March and early April 2026 show President Trump's approval rating sinking to new second-term lows around 33%, with disapproval nearing 60%, amid escalating U.S. involvement in the Iran war, the longest partial government shutdown in history, and economic headwinds like rising gas prices and inflation. These developments, highlighted in Nate Silver's daily Silver Bulletin tracking—which this market uses for resolution—have eroded support even among core Republicans, per The Hill reporting. Traders' 70% implied probability on "Down" reflects this downward polling trend over the past week, with no major positive catalysts emerging ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$589End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent CNN and UMass polls released in late March and early April 2026 show President Trump's approval rating sinking to new second-term lows around 33%, with disapproval nearing 60%, amid escalating U.S. involvement in the Iran war, the longest partial government shutdown in history, and economic headwinds like rising gas prices and inflation. These developments, highlighted in Nate Silver's daily Silver Bulletin tracking—which this market uses for resolution—have eroded support even among core Republicans, per The Hill reporting. Traders' 70% implied probability on "Down" reflects this downward polling trend over the past week, with no major positive catalysts emerging ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 10, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on April 10, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$589End Date
Apr 11, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent CNN and UMass polls released in late March and early April 2026 show President Trump's approval rating sinking to new second-term lows around 33%, with disapproval nearing 60%, amid escalating U.S. involvement in the Iran war, the longest partial government shutdown in history, and economic headwinds like rising gas prices and inflation. These developments, highlighted in Nate Silver's daily Silver Bulletin tracking—which this market uses for resolution—have eroded support even among core Republicans, per The Hill reporting. Traders' 70% implied probability on "Down" reflects this downward polling trend over the past week, with no major positive catalysts emerging ahead of midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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