Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that President-elect Trump's approval rating will decline this week, driven primarily by the latest weekly polls from Rasmussen and Gallup showing a drop to 44-46% from 48-50% the prior week. Key catalysts include backlash to controversial cabinet nominations like RFK Jr. for HHS and withdrawn picks such as Matt Gaetz, alongside market unease over proposed tariffs and immigration policies amid holiday-season economic jitters. With major pollsters having released data and no further surveys scheduled before resolution, odds imply minimal upside risk; however, an unforeseen positive endorsement or diplomatic breakthrough could prompt a last-minute poll shift, though traders assign negligible probability to such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
$0.00 Vol.
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Mar 21, 2026
Up
$0.00 Vol.
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Mar 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that President-elect Trump's approval rating will decline this week, driven primarily by the latest weekly polls from Rasmussen and Gallup showing a drop to 44-46% from 48-50% the prior week. Key catalysts include backlash to controversial cabinet nominations like RFK Jr. for HHS and withdrawn picks such as Matt Gaetz, alongside market unease over proposed tariffs and immigration policies amid holiday-season economic jitters. With major pollsters having released data and no further surveys scheduled before resolution, odds imply minimal upside risk; however, an unforeseen positive endorsement or diplomatic breakthrough could prompt a last-minute poll shift, though traders assign negligible probability to such reversals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 21, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that President-elect Trump's approval rating will decline this week, driven primarily by the latest weekly polls from Rasmussen and Gallup showing a drop to 44-46% from 48-50% the prior week. Key catalysts include backlash to controversial cabinet nominations like RFK Jr. for HHS and withdrawn picks such as Matt Gaetz, alongside market unease over proposed tariffs and immigration policies amid holiday-season economic jitters. With major pollsters having released data and no further surveys scheduled before resolution, odds imply minimal upside risk; however, an unforeseen positive endorsement or diplomatic breakthrough could prompt a last-minute poll shift, though traders assign negligible probability to such reversals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 20, 2026, than on March 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 13, 2026, than on March 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 21, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that President-elect Trump's approval rating will decline this week, driven primarily by the latest weekly polls from Rasmussen and Gallup showing a drop to 44-46% from 48-50% the prior week. Key catalysts include backlash to controversial cabinet nominations like RFK Jr. for HHS and withdrawn picks such as Matt Gaetz, alongside market unease over proposed tariffs and immigration policies amid holiday-season economic jitters. With major pollsters having released data and no further surveys scheduled before resolution, odds imply minimal upside risk; however, an unforeseen positive endorsement or diplomatic breakthrough could prompt a last-minute poll shift, though traders assign negligible probability to such reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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