Weather & Science

Temperature

Highest temperature in London on March 13?

12°C or higher

56%

Yes No

11°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$26K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 13?

68-69°F

26%

Yes No

66-67°F

21%

Yes No

NEW

$24K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in NYC on March 13?

46-47°F

28%

Yes No

44-45°F

24%

Yes No

NEW

$21K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 13?

10°C

28%

Yes No

11°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Miami on March 13?

82-83°F

39%

Yes No

80-81°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seattle on March 13?

42-43°F

30%

Yes No

40-41°F

27%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 13?

44-45°F

29%

Yes No

43°F or below

26%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 13?

3°C

35%

Yes No

4°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Dallas on March 13?

76-77°F

24%

Yes No

78-79°F

22%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 13?

28°C

27%

Yes No

29°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Paris on March 13?

11°C

30%

Yes No

12°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Ankara on March 13?

15°C or higher

39%

Yes No

14°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 13?

22°C or higher

48%

Yes No

21°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

$10K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Munich on March 13?

16°C

31%

Yes No

17°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 13?

24°C or higher

84%

Yes No

23°C

11%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 13?

21°C

20%

Yes No

23°C or higher

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 13?

36°C or below

88%

Yes No

37°C

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 13?

10°C

34%

Yes No

9°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 13?

15°C

26%

Yes No

14°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Singapore on March 13?

31°C

29%

Yes No

32°C

20%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 13?

21°C

28%

Yes No

22°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Precipitation

Precipitation in NYC in March?

4-5"

36%

Yes No

>6"

22%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in March?

4-5"

43%

Yes No

5-6"

33%

Yes No

$47K Vol.

Monthly

Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

41%

Yes No

28%

Yes No

$2M Vol.

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

50%

chance

Yes

$291K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

73%

chance

Yes

$63K Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

97%

Yes No

3rd hottest

Yes No

$58K Vol.

Monthly

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

<4m sq km

25%

Yes No

4.6-4.8m sq km

23%

Yes No

NEW

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

14.2-14.4m sq km

58%

Yes No

14.4-14.6m sq km

16%

Yes No

NEW

Tornadoes

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

34%

Yes No

1200–1249

24%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

150+

42%

Yes No

100–129

22%

Yes No

$28K Vol.

Daily

Hurricanes

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

50%

chance

Yes

$291K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

chance

Yes

$32K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Earthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

45%

Yes No

19%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

11–13

31%

Yes No

8–10

21%

Yes No

$983K Vol.

Daily

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

50%

Yes No

39%

Yes No

$571K Vol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$515K Vol.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10%

chance

Yes

$144K Vol.

Megaquake by March 31?

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

May 31

95%

Yes No

April 30

83%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Daily

Megaquake by June 30?

25%

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Volcanoes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

50%

Yes No

39%

Yes No

$571K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

98%

Yes No

↑3k

95%

Yes No

$7M Vol.

Monthly

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

10%

chance

Yes

$227K Vol.

New pandemic in 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

$151K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

1400

99%

Yes No

1450

98%

Yes No

$101K Vol.

Monthly

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

63%

chance

Yes

$61K Vol.

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 9, 2026?

70–80

97%

Yes No

80–90

Yes No

$48K Vol.

Weekly

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Nipah virus in US by March 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

15%

chance

Yes

NEW

Space

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

chance

Yes

$644K Vol.

NASA Artemis II

April 30

61%

Yes No

March 31

Yes No

$589K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

86%

Yes No

Anthropic

Yes No

$571K Vol.

Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$5M

73%

Yes No

$15M

38%

Yes No

$330K Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

2.0T+

55%

Yes No

1.8T–2.0T

18%

Yes No

$320K Vol.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

5-6

40%

Yes No

23%

Yes No

$313K Vol.

Daily

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$239K Vol.

Daily

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

20%

chance

Yes

$123K Vol.

Daily

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

chance

Yes

$120K Vol.

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

chance

Yes

$91K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159

32%

Yes No

160-179

31%

Yes No

$59K Vol.

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

December 31

88%

Yes No

September 30

80%

Yes No

$55K Vol.

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

89%

SpaceX

OpenAI

$44K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in March?

12 or more

96%

Yes No

$24K Vol.

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

87%

SpaceX

OpenAI

NEW

All

Temperature

Precipitation

Global

Tornadoes

Hurricanes

Earthquakes

Volcanoes

Pandemics

Space

Weather & Science

Temperature

Highest temperature in London on March 13?

12°C or higher

56%

Yes No

11°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$26K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 13?

68-69°F

26%

Yes No

66-67°F

21%

Yes No

NEW

$24K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in NYC on March 13?

46-47°F

28%

Yes No

44-45°F

24%

Yes No

NEW

$21K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 13?

10°C

28%

Yes No

11°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Miami on March 13?

82-83°F

39%

Yes No

80-81°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seattle on March 13?

42-43°F

30%

Yes No

40-41°F

27%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 13?

44-45°F

29%

Yes No

43°F or below

26%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 13?

3°C

35%

Yes No

4°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Dallas on March 13?

76-77°F

24%

Yes No

78-79°F

22%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 13?

28°C

27%

Yes No

29°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Paris on March 13?

11°C

30%

Yes No

12°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Ankara on March 13?

15°C or higher

39%

Yes No

14°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 13?

22°C or higher

48%

Yes No

21°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

$10K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Munich on March 13?

16°C

31%

Yes No

17°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 13?

24°C or higher

84%

Yes No

23°C

11%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 13?

21°C

20%

Yes No

23°C or higher

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 13?

36°C or below

88%

Yes No

37°C

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 13?

10°C

34%

Yes No

9°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 13?

15°C

26%

Yes No

14°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Singapore on March 13?

31°C

29%

Yes No

32°C

20%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 13?

21°C

28%

Yes No

22°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Precipitation

Precipitation in NYC in March?

4-5"

36%

Yes No

>6"

22%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in March?

4-5"

43%

Yes No

5-6"

33%

Yes No

$47K Vol.

Monthly

Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

41%

Yes No

28%

Yes No

$2M Vol.

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

50%

chance

Yes

$291K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

73%

chance

Yes

$63K Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

97%

Yes No

3rd hottest

Yes No

$58K Vol.

Monthly

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

<4m sq km

25%

Yes No

4.6-4.8m sq km

23%

Yes No

NEW

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

14.2-14.4m sq km

58%

Yes No

14.4-14.6m sq km

16%

Yes No

NEW

Tornadoes

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

34%

Yes No

1200–1249

24%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

150+

42%

Yes No

100–129

22%

Yes No

$28K Vol.

Daily

Hurricanes

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

50%

chance

Yes

$291K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

chance

Yes

$32K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Earthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

45%

Yes No

19%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

11–13

31%

Yes No

8–10

21%

Yes No

$983K Vol.

Daily

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

50%

Yes No

39%

Yes No

$571K Vol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$515K Vol.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

39%

chance

Yes

$264K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10%

chance

Yes

$144K Vol.

Megaquake by March 31?

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Daily

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$96K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

May 31

95%

Yes No

April 30

83%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Daily

Megaquake by June 30?

25%

chance

Yes

NEW

Daily

Volcanoes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

50%

Yes No

39%

Yes No

$571K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

98%

Yes No

↑3k

95%

Yes No

$7M Vol.

Monthly

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

10%

chance

Yes

$227K Vol.

New pandemic in 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

$151K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

1400

99%

Yes No

1450

98%

Yes No

$101K Vol.

Monthly

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

63%

chance

Yes

$61K Vol.

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 9, 2026?

70–80

97%

Yes No

80–90

Yes No

$48K Vol.

Weekly

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Nipah virus in US by March 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

15%

chance

Yes

NEW

Space

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

chance

Yes

$644K Vol.

NASA Artemis II

April 30

61%

Yes No

March 31

Yes No

$589K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

86%

Yes No

Anthropic

Yes No

$571K Vol.

Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$5M

73%

Yes No

$15M

38%

Yes No

$330K Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

2.0T+

55%

Yes No

1.8T–2.0T

18%

Yes No

$320K Vol.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

5-6

40%

Yes No

23%

Yes No

$313K Vol.

Daily

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$239K Vol.

Daily

Natural Disaster in 2026?

32%

chance

Yes

$177K Vol.

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

20%

chance

Yes

$123K Vol.

Daily

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

chance

Yes

$120K Vol.

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

chance

Yes

$91K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-159

32%

Yes No

160-179

31%

Yes No

$59K Vol.

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

December 31

88%

Yes No

September 30

80%

Yes No

$55K Vol.

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

89%

SpaceX

OpenAI

$44K Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in March?

12 or more

96%

Yes No

$24K Vol.

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

87%

SpaceX

OpenAI

NEW