Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts place Warsaw's April 5 high near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow, boosting trader-implied odds for 19–21°C outcomes to over 65% combined, while GFS runs introduce variability with potential cooler 17–18°C scenarios from increased cloud cover. IMGW short-range guidance aligns cooler at 13–15°C but has trended warmer in recent 24-hour updates amid observed above-climatological temperatures (early April average ~13°C). Key differentiators include insolation levels, exact ridge positioning, and boundary layer mixing; light winds heighten sensitivity to diurnal heating. New model cycles and IMGW bulletins on April 4 could refine consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
19°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 19%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
6%
18°C
15%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
19%
22°C or higher
15%
19°C 24%
20°C 24%
21°C 19%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
12°C or below
$707 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$552 Vol.
2%
16°C
$332 Vol.
3%
17°C
$429 Vol.
6%
18°C
$718 Vol.
15%
19°C
$600 Vol.
24%
20°C
$470 Vol.
24%
21°C
$644 Vol.
19%
22°C or higher
$615 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts place Warsaw's April 5 high near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow, boosting trader-implied odds for 19–21°C outcomes to over 65% combined, while GFS runs introduce variability with potential cooler 17–18°C scenarios from increased cloud cover. IMGW short-range guidance aligns cooler at 13–15°C but has trended warmer in recent 24-hour updates amid observed above-climatological temperatures (early April average ~13°C). Key differentiators include insolation levels, exact ridge positioning, and boundary layer mixing; light winds heighten sensitivity to diurnal heating. New model cycles and IMGW bulletins on April 4 could refine consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$7,375End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts place Warsaw's April 5 high near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow, boosting trader-implied odds for 19–21°C outcomes to over 65% combined, while GFS runs introduce variability with potential cooler 17–18°C scenarios from increased cloud cover. IMGW short-range guidance aligns cooler at 13–15°C but has trended warmer in recent 24-hour updates amid observed above-climatological temperatures (early April average ~13°C). Key differentiators include insolation levels, exact ridge positioning, and boundary layer mixing; light winds heighten sensitivity to diurnal heating. New model cycles and IMGW bulletins on April 4 could refine consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,375End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF ensemble forecasts place Warsaw's April 5 high near 20°C under a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow, boosting trader-implied odds for 19–21°C outcomes to over 65% combined, while GFS runs introduce variability with potential cooler 17–18°C scenarios from increased cloud cover. IMGW short-range guidance aligns cooler at 13–15°C but has trended warmer in recent 24-hour updates amid observed above-climatological temperatures (early April average ~13°C). Key differentiators include insolation levels, exact ridge positioning, and boundary layer mixing; light winds heighten sensitivity to diurnal heating. New model cycles and IMGW bulletins on April 4 could refine consensus amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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