Observed data from Esenboğa International Airport (LTAC) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on April 3 reached 12°C, as reported by Wunderground—the market's resolution source—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, morning showers, and a cool northerly airflow, per Turkish Meteorological Service (MGM) observations and METAR reports showing midday peaks near 12°C before evening drops to 7°C, suppressed warming below initial 14°C forecasts from NOAA models. Historical early-April highs average 14–16°C, but today's synoptic pattern favored restraint. With the day effectively complete, only a rare post hoc data revision could challenge this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 3?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 3?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$203,671 Vol.
$203,671 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$203,671 Vol.
$203,671 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$8,464 Vol.
No
8°C
$6,048 Vol.
No
9°C
$15,424 Vol.
No
10°C
$9,253 Vol.
No
11°C
$25,923 Vol.
No
12°C
$35,494 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$24,544 Vol.
No
14°C
$25,472 Vol.
No
15°C
$18,888 Vol.
No
16°C
$14,932 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$19,229 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Observed data from Esenboğa International Airport (LTAC) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on April 3 reached 12°C, as reported by Wunderground—the market's resolution source—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, morning showers, and a cool northerly airflow, per Turkish Meteorological Service (MGM) observations and METAR reports showing midday peaks near 12°C before evening drops to 7°C, suppressed warming below initial 14°C forecasts from NOAA models. Historical early-April highs average 14–16°C, but today's synoptic pattern favored restraint. With the day effectively complete, only a rare post hoc data revision could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$203,671End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Observed data from Esenboğa International Airport (LTAC) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on April 3 reached 12°C, as reported by Wunderground—the market's resolution source—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, morning showers, and a cool northerly airflow, per Turkish Meteorological Service (MGM) observations and METAR reports showing midday peaks near 12°C before evening drops to 7°C, suppressed warming below initial 14°C forecasts from NOAA models. Historical early-April highs average 14–16°C, but today's synoptic pattern favored restraint. With the day effectively complete, only a rare post hoc data revision could challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$203,671End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Observed data from Esenboğa International Airport (LTAC) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on April 3 reached 12°C, as reported by Wunderground—the market's resolution source—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability on that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, morning showers, and a cool northerly airflow, per Turkish Meteorological Service (MGM) observations and METAR reports showing midday peaks near 12°C before evening drops to 7°C, suppressed warming below initial 14°C forecasts from NOAA models. Historical early-April highs average 14–16°C, but today's synoptic pattern favored restraint. With the day effectively complete, only a rare post hoc data revision could challenge this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions