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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

25°C 24%

27°C 22%

28°C or higher 21%

22°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

25°C 24%

27°C 22%

28°C or higher 21%

22°C 16%

Polymarket
NEW

18°C or below

$140 Vol.

2%

19°C

$163 Vol.

3%

20°C

$163 Vol.

3%

21°C

$0 Vol.

10%

22°C

$0 Vol.

16%

23°C

$0 Vol.

16%

24°C

$46 Vol.

10%

25°C

$0 Vol.

24%

26°C

$150 Vol.

13%

27°C

$0 Vol.

22%

28°C or higher

$2 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a daytime high of 27°C on April 2 under mainly cloudy conditions with one or two showers and afternoon sunny intervals, driven by an east-to-southeast airstream following a weakening trough of low pressure over Guangdong. This aligns trader sentiment with closely matched implied probabilities for 25°C (24%), 28°C or higher (20.5%), and 27°C (20%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing that could suppress peaks via reduced solar insolation or permit hotter readings if skies clear. Recent March highs reached 26°C on the 27th amid spring's above-normal temperature bias, with daily HKO updates and model ensembles like GFS likely to refine odds ahead of resolution.

Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a daytime high of 27°C on April 2 under mainly cloudy conditions with one or two showers and afternoon sunny intervals, driven by an east-to-southeast airstream following a weakening trough of low pressure over Guangdong. This aligns trader sentiment with closely matched implied probabilities for 25°C (24%), 28°C or higher (20.5%), and 27°C (20%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing that could suppress peaks via reduced solar insolation or permit hotter readings if skies clear. Recent March highs reached 26°C on the 27th amid spring's above-normal temperature bias, with daily HKO updates and model ensembles like GFS likely to refine odds ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a daytime high of 27°C on April 2 under mainly cloudy conditions with one or two showers and afternoon sunny intervals, driven by an east-to-southeast airstream following a weakening trough of low pressure over Guangdong. This aligns trader sentiment with closely matched implied probabilities for 25°C (24%), 28°C or higher (20.5%), and 27°C (20%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing that could suppress peaks via reduced solar insolation or permit hotter readings if skies clear. Recent March highs reached 26°C on the 27th amid spring's above-normal temperature bias, with daily HKO updates and model ensembles like GFS likely to refine odds ahead of resolution.

Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a daytime high of 27°C on April 2 under mainly cloudy conditions with one or two showers and afternoon sunny intervals, driven by an east-to-southeast airstream following a weakening trough of low pressure over Guangdong. This aligns trader sentiment with closely matched implied probabilities for 25°C (24%), 28°C or higher (20.5%), and 27°C (20%), reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and shower timing that could suppress peaks via reduced solar insolation or permit hotter readings if skies clear. Recent March highs reached 26°C on the 27th amid spring's above-normal temperature bias, with daily HKO updates and model ensembles like GFS likely to refine odds ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 24%, followed by "27°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?" is "25°C" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 2?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.