Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Shanghai on April 3 indicate mean highs of 18–19°C but with spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential rain, as highlighted by China Meteorological Administration updates and sites like Weather Underground projecting around 17°C amid showers. This model divergence, combined with early April climatology averaging 17–18°C highs amid spring variability, drives the tight race between 16°C and 17°C as trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of suppressed daytime heating from overcast skies versus brief clear intervals. Recent March warmth (+2–3°C anomalies) provides upside potential, but neutral ENSO conditions favor typical fluctuations; watch 00Z/12Z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
16°C 28%
17°C 26%
18°C 19%
13°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
10%
12°C
10%
13°C
18%
14°C
17%
15°C
11%
16°C
28%
17°C
26%
18°C
19%
19°C
13%
20°C or higher
14%
16°C 28%
17°C 26%
18°C 19%
13°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
$347 Vol.
1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
10%
12°C
$5 Vol.
10%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
13%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Shanghai on April 3 indicate mean highs of 18–19°C but with spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential rain, as highlighted by China Meteorological Administration updates and sites like Weather Underground projecting around 17°C amid showers. This model divergence, combined with early April climatology averaging 17–18°C highs amid spring variability, drives the tight race between 16°C and 17°C as trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of suppressed daytime heating from overcast skies versus brief clear intervals. Recent March warmth (+2–3°C anomalies) provides upside potential, but neutral ENSO conditions favor typical fluctuations; watch 00Z/12Z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$352End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Shanghai on April 3 indicate mean highs of 18–19°C but with spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential rain, as highlighted by China Meteorological Administration updates and sites like Weather Underground projecting around 17°C amid showers. This model divergence, combined with early April climatology averaging 17–18°C highs amid spring variability, drives the tight race between 16°C and 17°C as trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of suppressed daytime heating from overcast skies versus brief clear intervals. Recent March warmth (+2–3°C anomalies) provides upside potential, but neutral ENSO conditions favor typical fluctuations; watch 00Z/12Z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$352End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Shanghai on April 3 indicate mean highs of 18–19°C but with spreads exceeding 5°C due to uncertainty in cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential rain, as highlighted by China Meteorological Administration updates and sites like Weather Underground projecting around 17°C amid showers. This model divergence, combined with early April climatology averaging 17–18°C highs amid spring variability, drives the tight race between 16°C and 17°C as trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments of suppressed daytime heating from overcast skies versus brief clear intervals. Recent March warmth (+2–3°C anomalies) provides upside potential, but neutral ENSO conditions favor typical fluctuations; watch 00Z/12Z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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