Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (30%) and 19°C (28.5%) for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime highs in this range amid persistent cloudy conditions from a recent frontal system. Light rain on March 30–31 has advected cooler East Sea air masses, capping springtime warming below climatological early-April norms of 18.6°C while limiting solar insolation. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence—favoring 18°C under overcast skies versus 19°C with afternoon breaks—and light winds around 10 km/h, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. New hourly observations and model runs expected through April 1 could refine this tight race, highlighting short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
18°C 33%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
10%
17°C
16%
18°C
30%
19°C
37%
20°C
16%
21°C
11%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
3%
18°C 33%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
14°C or below
$581 Vol.
2%
15°C
$40 Vol.
2%
16°C
$283 Vol.
10%
17°C
$90 Vol.
16%
18°C
$81 Vol.
30%
19°C
$122 Vol.
37%
20°C
$290 Vol.
16%
21°C
$574 Vol.
11%
22°C
$745 Vol.
5%
23°C
$389 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$625 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (30%) and 19°C (28.5%) for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime highs in this range amid persistent cloudy conditions from a recent frontal system. Light rain on March 30–31 has advected cooler East Sea air masses, capping springtime warming below climatological early-April norms of 18.6°C while limiting solar insolation. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence—favoring 18°C under overcast skies versus 19°C with afternoon breaks—and light winds around 10 km/h, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. New hourly observations and model runs expected through April 1 could refine this tight race, highlighting short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,820End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (30%) and 19°C (28.5%) for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime highs in this range amid persistent cloudy conditions from a recent frontal system. Light rain on March 30–31 has advected cooler East Sea air masses, capping springtime warming below climatological early-April norms of 18.6°C while limiting solar insolation. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence—favoring 18°C under overcast skies versus 19°C with afternoon breaks—and light winds around 10 km/h, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. New hourly observations and model runs expected through April 1 could refine this tight race, highlighting short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,820End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (30%) and 19°C (28.5%) for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering daytime highs in this range amid persistent cloudy conditions from a recent frontal system. Light rain on March 30–31 has advected cooler East Sea air masses, capping springtime warming below climatological early-April norms of 18.6°C while limiting solar insolation. Key differentiators include cloud cover persistence—favoring 18°C under overcast skies versus 19°C with afternoon breaks—and light winds around 10 km/h, per China Meteorological Administration guidance. New hourly observations and model runs expected through April 1 could refine this tight race, highlighting short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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