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Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

58°F or higher 72%

56-57°F 14%

54-55°F 12%

50-51°F 8%

Polymarket
NEW

58°F or higher 72%

56-57°F 14%

54-55°F 12%

50-51°F 8%

Polymarket
NEW

39°F or below

$161 Vol.

1%

40-41°F

$148 Vol.

1%

42-43°F

$246 Vol.

1%

44-45°F

$149 Vol.

1%

46-47°F

$164 Vol.

1%

48-49°F

$124 Vol.

1%

50-51°F

$0 Vol.

8%

52-53°F

$3 Vol.

8%

54-55°F

$0 Vol.

12%

56-57°F

$0 Vol.

14%

58°F or higher

$21 Vol.

72%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, aligned with the National Weather Service's latest 7-day forecast projecting a high near 66°F amid a ridge of high pressure ushering in above-normal spring warmth. This positioning reflects strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which show upper-50s to mid-60s highs favored by southerly flow and minimal cloud interference, a shift warmer in recent 24-hour runs following late-March showers. Early April climatology averages 55°F at Central Park (the official measurement site), with historical variability of 8–10°F, but current outlooks discount cooler outcomes below 58°F. Daily NWS updates through April 3 could refine this as resolution nears.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, aligned with the National Weather Service's latest 7-day forecast projecting a high near 66°F amid a ridge of high pressure ushering in above-normal spring warmth. This positioning reflects strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which show upper-50s to mid-60s highs favored by southerly flow and minimal cloud interference, a shift warmer in recent 24-hour runs following late-March showers. Early April climatology averages 55°F at Central Park (the official measurement site), with historical variability of 8–10°F, but current outlooks discount cooler outcomes below 58°F. Daily NWS updates through April 3 could refine this as resolution nears.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, aligned with the National Weather Service's latest 7-day forecast projecting a high near 66°F amid a ridge of high pressure ushering in above-normal spring warmth. This positioning reflects strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which show upper-50s to mid-60s highs favored by southerly flow and minimal cloud interference, a shift warmer in recent 24-hour runs following late-March showers. Early April climatology averages 55°F at Central Park (the official measurement site), with historical variability of 8–10°F, but current outlooks discount cooler outcomes below 58°F. Daily NWS updates through April 3 could refine this as resolution nears.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, aligned with the National Weather Service's latest 7-day forecast projecting a high near 66°F amid a ridge of high pressure ushering in above-normal spring warmth. This positioning reflects strong model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which show upper-50s to mid-60s highs favored by southerly flow and minimal cloud interference, a shift warmer in recent 24-hour runs following late-March showers. Early April climatology averages 55°F at Central Park (the official measurement site), with historical variability of 8–10°F, but current outlooks discount cooler outcomes below 58°F. Daily NWS updates through April 3 could refine this as resolution nears.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "58°F or higher" at 72%, followed by "56-57°F" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?" is "58°F or higher" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "56-57°F" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.