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Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

19°C 55.1%

18°C 29%

17°C 12%

16°C 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

$42,180 Vol.

19°C 55.1%

18°C 29%

17°C 12%

16°C 6.0%

Polymarket
NEW

$42,180 Vol.

14°C or below

$7,614 Vol.

1%

15°C

$6,202 Vol.

1%

16°C

$7,617 Vol.

6%

17°C

$3,877 Vol.

12%

18°C

$3,283 Vol.

29%

19°C

$3,156 Vol.

50%

20°C

$4,079 Vol.

5%

21°C

$4,035 Vol.

4%

22°C

$2,761 Vol.

1%

23°C

$1,314 Vol.

<1%

24°C or higher

$1,582 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast update projects Madrid's March 30 high at 18°C under clear skies and light northeast winds at 10-15 km/h, positioning 19°C (48.5% market-implied probability) and 18°C (28%) as leading outcomes amid a spring 2026 pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 16-17°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, with low cloud cover enabling strong diurnal heating from solar insolation, though a 1-2°C spread reflects uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects. Yesterday's cooler 13°C maximum underscores the rapid warming trend from high-pressure ridging; hourly observations from official stations will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.

AEMET's latest forecast update projects Madrid's March 30 high at 18°C under clear skies and light northeast winds at 10-15 km/h, positioning 19°C (48.5% market-implied probability) and 18°C (28%) as leading outcomes amid a spring 2026 pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 16-17°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, with low cloud cover enabling strong diurnal heating from solar insolation, though a 1-2°C spread reflects uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects. Yesterday's cooler 13°C maximum underscores the rapid warming trend from high-pressure ridging; hourly observations from official stations will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.AEMET's latest forecast update projects Madrid's March 30 high at 18°C under clear skies and light northeast winds at 10-15 km/h, positioning 19°C (48.5% market-implied probability) and 18°C (28%) as leading outcomes amid a spring 2026 pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 16-17°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, with low cloud cover enabling strong diurnal heating from solar insolation, though a 1-2°C spread reflects uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects. Yesterday's cooler 13°C maximum underscores the rapid warming trend from high-pressure ridging; hourly observations from official stations will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.

AEMET's latest forecast update projects Madrid's March 30 high at 18°C under clear skies and light northeast winds at 10-15 km/h, positioning 19°C (48.5% market-implied probability) and 18°C (28%) as leading outcomes amid a spring 2026 pattern warmer than the March climatological average of 16-17°C. Ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS aligns closely, with low cloud cover enabling strong diurnal heating from solar insolation, though a 1-2°C spread reflects uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects. Yesterday's cooler 13°C maximum underscores the rapid warming trend from high-pressure ridging; hourly observations from official stations will sharpen resolution as the day progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19°C" at 50%, followed by "18°C" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?" has generated $42.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?" is "19°C" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.