Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 19–20°C amid AEMET's latest prediction of a 21°C maximum under clear skies, northerly winds at 25 km/h, and 0% precipitation chance. This mild outlook stems from a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Iberia following recent model updates, though ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS show variability of 16–24°C due to potential low cloud intrusion or wind shifts affecting diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 17–18°C highs at Madrid's Retiro station, with spring 2026 seasonal outlooks signaling above-normal temperatures; daily model refreshes through April 2 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning ahead of official measurement resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 3?
19°C 21%
20°C 20%
16°C or below 18%
18°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
18%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
21%
20°C
20%
21°C
14%
22°C
17%
23°C
9%
24°C
11%
25°C
10%
26°C or higher
7%
19°C 21%
20°C 20%
16°C or below 18%
18°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
10%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 19–20°C amid AEMET's latest prediction of a 21°C maximum under clear skies, northerly winds at 25 km/h, and 0% precipitation chance. This mild outlook stems from a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Iberia following recent model updates, though ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS show variability of 16–24°C due to potential low cloud intrusion or wind shifts affecting diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 17–18°C highs at Madrid's Retiro station, with spring 2026 seasonal outlooks signaling above-normal temperatures; daily model refreshes through April 2 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning ahead of official measurement resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 19–20°C amid AEMET's latest prediction of a 21°C maximum under clear skies, northerly winds at 25 km/h, and 0% precipitation chance. This mild outlook stems from a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Iberia following recent model updates, though ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS show variability of 16–24°C due to potential low cloud intrusion or wind shifts affecting diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 17–18°C highs at Madrid's Retiro station, with spring 2026 seasonal outlooks signaling above-normal temperatures; daily model refreshes through April 2 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning ahead of official measurement resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered around 19–20°C amid AEMET's latest prediction of a 21°C maximum under clear skies, northerly winds at 25 km/h, and 0% precipitation chance. This mild outlook stems from a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Iberia following recent model updates, though ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS show variability of 16–24°C due to potential low cloud intrusion or wind shifts affecting diurnal heating. Early April climatology averages 17–18°C highs at Madrid's Retiro station, with spring 2026 seasonal outlooks signaling above-normal temperatures; daily model refreshes through April 2 will clarify steering patterns and refine trader positioning ahead of official measurement resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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