Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing a broad spread across 7–17°C due to divergent steering from upper-level jet stream positioning and potential northerly cold air advection versus milder Atlantic influences. Recent model runs indicate a slight clustering around 13–14°C, aligning with the 26% implied probabilities for those outcomes, while historical early April highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport average 11–13°C amid variable spring conditions. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal timing, with inherent forecast uncertainty peaking 4–5 days out; watch IMGW and ECMWF updates every 12 hours for shifts ahead of measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 3?
17°C or higher 41%
7°C or below 21%
13°C 18%
14°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
21%
8°C
18%
9°C
17%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
18%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C or higher
41%
17°C or higher 41%
7°C or below 21%
13°C 18%
14°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
18%
9°C
$0 Vol.
17%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
17%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing a broad spread across 7–17°C due to divergent steering from upper-level jet stream positioning and potential northerly cold air advection versus milder Atlantic influences. Recent model runs indicate a slight clustering around 13–14°C, aligning with the 26% implied probabilities for those outcomes, while historical early April highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport average 11–13°C amid variable spring conditions. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal timing, with inherent forecast uncertainty peaking 4–5 days out; watch IMGW and ECMWF updates every 12 hours for shifts ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing a broad spread across 7–17°C due to divergent steering from upper-level jet stream positioning and potential northerly cold air advection versus milder Atlantic influences. Recent model runs indicate a slight clustering around 13–14°C, aligning with the 26% implied probabilities for those outcomes, while historical early April highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport average 11–13°C amid variable spring conditions. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal timing, with inherent forecast uncertainty peaking 4–5 days out; watch IMGW and ECMWF updates every 12 hours for shifts ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 3, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing a broad spread across 7–17°C due to divergent steering from upper-level jet stream positioning and potential northerly cold air advection versus milder Atlantic influences. Recent model runs indicate a slight clustering around 13–14°C, aligning with the 26% implied probabilities for those outcomes, while historical early April highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport average 11–13°C amid variable spring conditions. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability and frontal timing, with inherent forecast uncertainty peaking 4–5 days out; watch IMGW and ECMWF updates every 12 hours for shifts ahead of measurement at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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