Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts point to Milan's highest temperature on March 29 clustering around 17°C, driving the tight race between 16-17°C and warmer outcomes at 25-26% implied probabilities each. This stems from a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow, but model divergence arises from uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and light winds, which could cap diurnal heating at 16°C or allow urban heat island effects to push toward 22°C+. Historical late-March highs in Milan average 14-16°C, yet 2024's warmer anomaly—fueled by persistent blocking patterns—has traders hedging across the 15-22°C band amid pending 12Z model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on March 29?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 29?
22°C or higher 37%
17°C 28%
16°C 24%
18°C 18%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
16%
16°C
24%
17°C
28%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
15%
21°C
12%
22°C or higher
37%
22°C or higher 37%
17°C 28%
16°C 24%
18°C 18%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
16%
16°C
24%
17°C
28%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
15%
21°C
12%
22°C or higher
37%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts point to Milan's highest temperature on March 29 clustering around 17°C, driving the tight race between 16-17°C and warmer outcomes at 25-26% implied probabilities each. This stems from a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow, but model divergence arises from uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and light winds, which could cap diurnal heating at 16°C or allow urban heat island effects to push toward 22°C+. Historical late-March highs in Milan average 14-16°C, yet 2024's warmer anomaly—fueled by persistent blocking patterns—has traders hedging across the 15-22°C band amid pending 12Z model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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