Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models cluster Milan's highest temperature on March 25 around 16-19°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 16-19°C each above 25% implied probability. A building high-pressure ridge over the Alps is delivering warm advection and stable conditions favoring mild highs 3-4°C above the late-March historical average of 14°C, but model spread hinges on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover—GFS runs lean warmer at 18-19°C with sunnier skies, while ECMWF holds cooler at 16-17°C amid patchy stratus. Recent 00Z updates slightly boosted peaks, yet diurnal uncertainty keeps odds tightly matched ahead of final 12Z guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on March 25?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 25?
18°C 28%
19°C 27%
17°C 21%
16°C 19%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
7%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
28%
19°C
27%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 28%
19°C 27%
17°C 21%
16°C 19%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
7%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
28%
19°C
27%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models cluster Milan's highest temperature on March 25 around 16-19°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 16-19°C each above 25% implied probability. A building high-pressure ridge over the Alps is delivering warm advection and stable conditions favoring mild highs 3-4°C above the late-March historical average of 14°C, but model spread hinges on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover—GFS runs lean warmer at 18-19°C with sunnier skies, while ECMWF holds cooler at 16-17°C amid patchy stratus. Recent 00Z updates slightly boosted peaks, yet diurnal uncertainty keeps odds tightly matched ahead of final 12Z guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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